2024: The year Asian markets take off while the West stagnates

When Will the Stock Market Rise in 2024? This is the question that millions of investors ask as the new year begins. The answer is not simple because global markets are experiencing a turning point: while Western stock markets show signs of fatigue, Asian indices are preparing for an unprecedented takeoff.

The context is complex. Four years of pandemic, logistical crises, and geopolitical instability have left deep wounds in the world economy. But now, as these storms seem to be subsiding, a new challenge emerges: climate change. And precisely at this inflection point, markets are dramatically redistributing their economic power.

The Great Paradigm Shift: Where Will the Money Flow

To understand when the stock market will rise in 2024, it’s important to recognize that not all markets will rise equally. Technical data show a polarized outlook where East and West will continue on divergent paths.

Why Western Markets Will Adjust

The New York Stock Exchange is at a critical point. After jumping from 14,800 points in October to nearly 17,000 in December, it is very close to its all-time highs. Here, history repeats itself: every time it breaks its historical ceilings, a sharp correction follows. Moving averages are already signaling this imminent decline, and all signs point to January as the month when it will materialize.

The situation in Frankfurt is even clearer. The German DAX is also at all-time highs after rising from 14,680 to 16,750 points between November and December. As with New York, market logic suggests that after such a sharp increase, a decline is coming. It won’t be catastrophic, but it will be significant.

Why Asia Is Ready to Take Off

While the West slows down, Shanghai is doing exactly the opposite. The Chinese stock market closed 2023 with a strong bullish push after maintaining a flat trend throughout the year. This is no coincidence: historically, flat periods in Shanghai have always preceded spectacular rises, as in 2007 and 2015.

The 2017-2023 period has been another of those plateaus. Technical indicators suggest that 2024 could be the year when a new acceleration begins. And this is where the paradigm shift makes sense: China leads growth in Asia, and the entire region is flourishing while Latin America and Africa sink into economic crises.

The Three Massive Problems Threatening the Markets

The Global Debt Bubble

The world has accumulated debt at unprecedented levels. The US has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 114%, Italy 151%, Japan an astonishing 252%. This soaring debt has generated inflation, increased taxes, and destroyed the purchasing power of companies and families. Everyone is in debt, from governments to ordinary people. It’s a fragile situation, and any economic shock could trigger a recession.

Persistent Inflation

Although moderate in major economies like North America, Europe, and China, inflation remains brutal in Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. Argentina is on the path to hyperinflation with Javier Milei trying to abandon the peso. Venezuela, Syria, Sudan, and Myanmar are already devastated. Even robust African countries like Kenya and South Africa face serious inflation crises.

Climate Change as Opportunity and Threat

The Dubai COP28 confirmed what the data already showed: Earth was 1.4°C warmer in 2023 than the historical average, and 2024 will be even worse. The energy transition is inevitable but costly. Closing coal and gas plants could spike energy prices if renewables do not grow fast enough.

Here lies the opportunity: whoever controls this energy transition controls the future. And China already knows this.

China: The Engine of Global Growth

While the US and Europe show signs of exhaustion, China is on an upward trend. It is a leader in renewable energy, transportation, infrastructure, technology, and finance. Additionally, it is increasing its influence across Southeast Asia, which is flourishing like never before.

The reason is simple: while the developed world struggles with debt, inflation, and stagnation, Asia is growing. Strategic investors have already seen this. That’s why capital flows are shifting toward the East.

Where to Invest in 2024 When the Stock Market Rises in the Right Sectors

It’s not a question of whether the stock market will rise in 2024, but of knowing where to invest to be on the right side of this transition.

Safe Bets: Sectors on the Rise

Renewable Energy: After COP28, money will flow massively into this sector. Iberdrola, Canadian Solar, Siemens Gamesa, and First Solar are giants here. Public and private investments in solar and wind will accelerate.

Artificial Intelligence: What happened with AI in 2023 is just the beginning. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Adobe, and Baidu will continue to dominate if they keep innovating.

Asian Companies: China, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore are growing faster than any Western economy. Investing in these regions is investing in the future.

Sustainable Transportation: Electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles will receive massive capital injections. Tesla, BYD, Daimler, and Hyundai will have golden years.

Traps to Avoid: Sectors in Trouble

Financial Companies: With such high debt levels, many corporations and governments will default. Banks are on the front lines.

Real Estate Market: China is stagnating, as are Europe and the US. Families struggle to pay rent and mortgages. Imminent bankruptcies are expected in this sector.

Fossil Fuels: They have no future in the long term, although oil prices could rise in the short term due to demand. But it’s a bet against the future.

Old Western Companies: Corporations that did not invest in innovation or renewable energy will suffer more when Western markets slow down.

The Strategy for 2024

When the stock market will rise in 2024 depends entirely on where you put your money. Western markets will face corrections. Economies are saturated with debt, inflation persists, and climate change is accelerating.

But this is not pessimism: it’s opportunity. Companies in renewable energy, sustainable transportation, and artificial intelligence will experience unprecedented years of expansion. Asian markets will lead global growth. Governments and private capital are channeling massive resources into these areas.

2024 will be a demanding year for those who do not understand the trends, but it will be extraordinary for those who know where to invest. The question is not if the stock market will rise, but whether you will be in the right sectors and regions when it does.