XAU: The Precious Metal That Dominates Trading Tables in 2024

When we talk about financial security, few assets generate as much interest as gold. The XAUUSD quote — which represents the relationship between the precious metal and the US dollar — has surged in recent months, causing investors around the world to rethink their strategies. But before jumping on this wave, it’s worth understanding what really lies behind this rapid appreciation.

Understanding XAUUSD: Much More Than a Symbol

The acronym XAUUSD may seem like just numbers on a screen, but it represents something very concrete: the price of gold traded in international markets. XAU is the abbreviation for gold, while USD represents the US dollar. Unlike physical gold — the one used in jewelry and stored in safes — the XAUUSD is a traded asset in the forex market, driven by fluctuations in supply, demand, and geopolitical events.

The distinction is crucial: the raw precious metal is a commodity with limited supply due to global mining, mainly in Africa, which contributes approximately 3,500 to 3,700 tons annually. The XAUUSD quote also reflects decisions by Central Banks to increase or reduce their reserves, directly influencing the price in financial markets.

The Historic Leap: Numbers That Speak for Themselves

Data from the last ten years tell a story of continuous appreciation. According to market experts, gold has gained over 256.73% in the past decade. In 2023, it hit a historic record by surpassing US$ 2,135 per ounce, exceeding previous highs.

This year, the trend remains optimistic. In March 2024, the quote was around $2,157.68 per ounce, with an increase of approximately 9.06% over the past 12 months. The trend suggests consolidation above US$ 2,000 per ounce, creating a higher support level for future operations.

Why Is Gold Rising Now?

The current appreciation is no coincidence — it results from a combination of factors that reinforce each other. First, there is the weakening of the dollar throughout 2023 and 2024, which naturally makes gold more accessible in other currencies and boosts its international demand.

Second, geopolitical issues have intensified the search for “safe havens.” Regional conflicts, such as the situation in Ukraine and clashes in the Middle East, lead investors to migrate to defensive assets. Gold, historically, is the classic refuge in times of uncertainty.

Third, global Central Banks have aggressively increased their gold reserves, boosting institutional demand. This movement by powerful market players creates a multiplier effect, attracting smaller investors as well.

Technical Analysis: Where Is XAUUSD Going?

From a technical perspective, the US$ 2,000 per ounce price acts as a resistance base for 2024. There is a significant probability that the sideways movement will continue, with a possibility of reaching historic highs even in the first half of the year. Even without confirmation of new peaks, stability above this range reinforces the defensive scenario.

Experts point to a bullish outlook for the coming months, but with moderate growth and no drastic explosions. Some projections indicate the possibility of approaching US$ 2,500 per ounce by mid-year, remaining elevated until the end of the period.

The Advantages of Investing Now

Investing in XAUUSD offers interesting aspects for those looking to diversify their portfolios. The metal acts as a robust hedge against inflation — when the currency loses purchasing power, gold tends to appreciate. It is a secular asset, with centuries of history as a store of value.

Additionally, unlike stocks or funds, gold does not depend on the financial health of specific institutions. There is no risk of bank insolvency or government default affecting its value. The management independence reduces vulnerabilities typical of corporate investments.

Points to Watch

Not everything is positive. The biggest trap lies in currency dependence: if the dollar suddenly appreciates, investors operating in reais suffer a reduction in gains. The inverse relationship between a strong dollar and the gold price is mechanical and inexorable.

Another point is volatility. Although considered defensive, XAUUSD experiences considerable oscillations influenced by interest rate decisions, especially American ones. Higher interest rates tend to push the price down, as they make other assets more attractive.

If you choose to buy through Brazilian financial institutions, beware of taxation. The tax structure varies depending on the type of operation and should be evaluated before committing to larger investments.

How to Start: Available Paths

For those living in Brazil, there are multiple ways to gain exposure to gold. Direct trading of XAUUSD through forex platforms is the most popular, offering flexibility and lower costs. It only requires opening an account with regulated brokers.

There are also investment funds that track the price of gold, functioning as participation in a condominium. ETFs and BDRs (Brazilian deposit receipts) replicate gold indices without requiring physical purchase. Shares of mining companies listed on the stock exchange offer indirect exposure but with their own dynamics.

Physical gold purchase is possible, although it involves bureaucracy — and it’s worth noting that it has ceased to be traded through certain traditional platforms since early 2024.

The Verdict for 2024

Gold has already proven its usefulness as a wealth stabilizer over decades. In the current context, with geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation, and a declining dollar, XAUUSD positions itself as a defensive and potentially profitable option. The numbers support moderate optimism.

This is not a guarantee of profitability — markets change, surprises happen. But for those seeking an asset with a solid history and clear technical foundation, the precious metal deserves a place in the conversation about asset allocation in 2024.