Gold Price Predictions 2025-2026: Is This the Right Time to Enter?

Gold Breaks Records - Surprises Are Not Over Yet

An exceptional year saw gold prices in 2025, surpassing all initial forecasts and breaking an important psychological barrier. With an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year, the precious metal reached $4,381 per ounce in mid-October, achieving a record high not even anticipated by major investment banks like JPMorgan.

This continuous rise is not random. It results from the convergence of strong factors: a weakening US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increasing purchases by global central banks, and escalating geopolitical tensions driving investors toward safe havens.

What happened to gold prices in 2024?

Before looking ahead, it’s essential to understand the path gold took last year. 2024 started strongly, with the price reaching $2,251 per ounce in the first quarter, supported by robust demand from Asian central banks, especially China.

In the second quarter, the precious metal continued its steady ascent to reach $2,450, a record level during that period. This was a clear indicator that global demand was genuinely increasing, not just media hype.

The third quarter brought another positive surprise: the price hit $2,672. Here, Asian central banks significantly increased their purchases, and large acquisition deals in the mining sector added fuel to the rally.

The fourth quarter of 2024 was more volatile. The price rose to $2,785 in October due to weak inflation data, then declined with the US elections, before rebounding to $2,715, ending the year close to $2,660.

Gold in 2025: From a strong start to a historic peak

2025 began with the same positive tone as the end of 2024. In January, gold traded at $2,798, then gradually climbed.

February saw $2,894, March jumped sharply to $3,304, and April experienced a slight dip to $3,207 before gaining momentum again in May $3,288 and June $3,352.

The major event was in September 2025. Gold reached $3,770 per ounce, marking an increase of over 40% since the start of the year. It was clear that something significant was happening in global capital markets.

Then October brought the biggest surprise. Mid-month, gold broke the $4,000 barrier for the first time in history, continuing its ascent to reach $4,381 — the highest level ever recorded.

November saw a correction and stabilization, with the price settling at $4,063, but still far from the pre-explosion levels.

Why all this surge? The real factors behind the jump

The massive rise in gold is not a random story. Here are the main factors:

1. Weak US Dollar
When the dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting global demand. 2025 saw a noticeable dollar weakness, especially with expectations of US interest rate cuts.

2. Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical crises make investors seek safe havens. Gold is always the first choice. The longest US government shutdown in history, along with rising global tensions, fueled this demand.

3. Heavy Central Bank Purchases
Central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets and Asia, continued strong buying. This massive institutional demand provides a solid foundation for gold prices.

4. Persistent Inflation
Although inflation has decreased from its peak, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The inflation rate in September 2025 was 3%, giving gold a strong basis as a hedge.

5. Expectations of Rate Cuts
As the yield on bonds and bank deposits (decreases through rate cuts), gold, which yields no interest, becomes relatively less attractive — but at the same time, it becomes a stronger safe haven.

What do major banks expect for gold in 2026?

When asked about gold price forecasts for 2026, a cautious yet optimistic picture emerges. Here’s what experts predict:

JPMorgan: expects an average of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a potential reaching $4,900 in the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs: indicates a possibility of $4,000 mid-year, with an optimistic scenario reaching $4,900 by the end of 2026.

Morgan Stanley: forecasts $4,500 by mid-2026, supported by strong demand from investment funds and central banks.

Standard Chartered: expects $4,300 by the end of 2025, and $4,500 over 12 months.

Bank of America: projects $4,000 by Q3 2026.

HSBC: more optimistic forecasts of $5,000 by 2026.

ANZ: anticipates $4,400 by the end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026.

The unified range is between $4,000 and $5,000 per ounce, reflecting a general consensus on continued support for gold prices.

Factors shaping the next phase of gold

1. US Federal Reserve Policies
Any sudden return to interest rate hikes will be a cold shower for gold prices. Stability or gradual cuts will support prices.

2. Geopolitical Tensions
If some major conflicts officially end, safe-haven demand may decline. But currently, tensions do not indicate an imminent improvement.

3. Dollar Strength
Any sudden rise in the dollar could pressure gold. Daily monitoring of the dollar index is essential.

4. Collective Investor Exit
If investors suddenly decide to exit gold for other assets (such as stocks or cryptocurrencies), prices could fall rapidly.

Practical investment strategies in gold: Which is suitable for you?

Short-term Investment

If you aim to profit from daily or weekly price fluctuations, options include:

Gold futures contracts: allow speculation on price direction without owning physical gold.

CFDs (Contracts for Difference): a flexible tool to profit from both rising and falling markets. The main advantage is leverage, which multiplies your capital — but beware, it also multiplies losses.

Gold ETFs: provide an easy way to enter and exit the market.

Advantages of short-term investing:

• Potential for quick profits from volatility
• High flexibility in entry and exit
• No storage costs

Risks of short-term investing:

• Requires intensive daily monitoring
• Timing is difficult in volatile markets
• Additional trading costs (commissions, spreads, rollover fees)
• Higher risk level due to leverage

( Long-term Investment

If your goal is wealth preservation and portfolio diversification, options include:

Physical gold )bars and coins(: direct ownership, completely secure, but require storage and insurance.

Gold-backed investment funds: offer exposure to gold without physical storage.

Mining company stocks: provide an indirect way to invest in gold.

Advantages of long-term investing:

• Less susceptible to short-term volatility
• Preserves purchasing power against inflation
• Safe haven during economic crises

Risks of long-term investing:

• Returns may be relatively slow
• Gold does not generate fixed income )unlike dividend-paying stocks###
• Storage and insurance costs for physical gold

Practical tips before you start

1. Understand your goals first
Before buying a gold piece or opening a trading position, ask yourself: Are you hedging against inflation? Looking for quick profits? Or diversifying your portfolio? Each goal requires a different strategy.

2. Assess your risk tolerance
Gold can experience sharp short-term fluctuations. Determine how much decline you can tolerate and how long you plan to hold the investment.

3. Don’t rely solely on forecasts
Even the biggest investment banks can be wrong. Diversification is the best solution — don’t put all your money into gold alone.

4. Regularly monitor your portfolio
If gold’s value rises excessively, you may need to rebalance. Use apps and specialized websites to track prices in real-time.

5. Combine patience and discipline
Daily volatility may tempt emotional decisions. A successful strategy requires long-term commitment and high discipline.

What does all this mean for you?

Gold forecasts for 2025-2026 suggest a relatively optimistic outlook. The possible range is between $4,000 and $5,000 per ounce, with a strong likelihood of staying above $4,000.

But this does not mean gold will rise in a straight line. Real risks exist: changes in central bank policies, sudden geopolitical improvements, or mass investor exits — all of which could alter the landscape.

The wisdom lies in understanding your role as an investor. Are you seeking a safe haven to preserve your wealth? Or a short-term trading opportunity? Each requires a different strategy.

Gold is not a magical investment, but a powerful tool for those who understand it. Entering without planning is the real risk; entering with awareness and discipline is the right path.