You can be right

And still lose money

This is one of the hardest lessons the market teaches investors. It sounds very unfair, but the market is not created to reward early correctness. The market rewards endurance and time.

In the late 1990s, many believed that the internet would change the world. They were right. The internet truly changed everything.

But investors who poured heavily into internet stocks from the mid to late 90s still saw their assets plummet when the dot-com bubble burst. Amazon fell nearly 90%. Apple dropped about 80%. Microsoft lost about half its value. Priceline almost completely collapsed.

The Nasdaq index took nearly 5 years to return to its previous level. Most internet companies never survived. A few did, but had to endure deep declines. And while they were struggling to recover, new companies appeared. Google even missed most of the initial bubble phase.

Being correct about the future does not help investors avoid timing risks.

Let's move to another example, Michael Burry was one of the first to spot cracks in the housing market. He understood subprime loans, interest-only loans, and the fragility of the entire financial system. He bet on the worst-case scenario by buying CDS from 2005, which are insurance contracts against mortgage bond defaults.

But the market continued to rise for another 2 years. His fund suffered major declines. Investors lost patience. Withdrawals were locked. His reputation was severely affected. Financial and psychological pressures were immense.

In the end, he was right. But being early came at a very high cost before everything unfolded as predicted.

These stories all point to the same reality.

Being right is only part of investing. Timing is just as important.

Either you must perfectly time the peaks and troughs, which is extremely difficult. Or you need time in the market. Time in the market means becoming a long-term investor, willing to stay through multiple cycles, phases of volatility, and even long periods where nothing seems to yield results.

Most investors don't lose because they are wrong about the idea. They lose because they run out of patience, deplete their capital, or cannot withstand psychological pressure before their idea has time to play out.

This is even clearer when it comes to choosing which company or project will win.

Betting on a single project requires not only being correct about the technology but also about execution, competition, legal aspects, and survival ability. Many good ideas never turn into good investments.

Betting on an entire market through index funds or diversification is different. You don't need to guess which company will win right from the start. You let time, competition, and natural淘汰 process do that work for you.

The lesson is not to avoid strong beliefs or big trends. The lesson is to respect time, diversify, and manage risk.

The market does not reward mere faith. The market rewards those who can stay long enough for their correctness to finally matter.#My2026FirstPost #2026CryptoOutlook $BTC $ETH $SOL