TON Price Prediction: 'Limited Upside' Despite Expansion of Tokenized Assets... Ongoing Technical Bearish Signals

Toncoin(TON) is currently showing limited movement around the area. It has slightly recovered from the two-month low of $1.42, but despite positive news, technical indicators continue to signal weakness, indicating that short-term downside risk remains.

xStocks Launches, the Beginning of RWA Ecosystem Expansion… but Market Reaction is “Cautious”

On Thursday, with the official launch of xStocks on the TON network, notable changes were observed. Now, major TON wallets such as TonWallet, TonKeeper, and MyTonWallet can directly hold and trade tokenized US stocks like Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft. The key point is that everything can be done within the wallet without a separate trading app or brokerage account.

The TON Foundation interprets this as an expansion of real asset(RWA) adoption and an enhancement of the practicality of the Telegram-based ecosystem. In the long term, there is ample room for increased on-chain activity and the spread of real use cases. However, the market did not view this as a positive development in the short term. Following the news, Ton dropped about 3%, falling to $1.42.

Derivative Market Signals: Increased Short Dominance… Funding Rate Turns Negative

Technical indicators in the derivatives market are revealing a clearer bearish pattern:

• OI-Weighted Funding Rate: Turned negative(-0.011%) on Friday. This indicates that short position holders are paying long position holders, suggesting the market sentiment is leaning downward.

• Long/Short Ratio: Recorded at 0.36, below 1. This means shorts significantly outnumber longs, implying that short-term market psychology still favors “sell after rebound.”

Technical Pattern Analysis: Failed Resistance Break, Formation of Bearish Wedge

A noticeable pattern change is observed on Ton’s daily chart. After bouncing off the resistance at the top of the falling wedge(Falling Wedge) on December 10, it plunged about 14%, reaching the two-month low of $1.42(. Currently, it is consolidating around $1.45.

Downside Scenario: If the bearish trend continues, the next support level is mentioned at $1.31.

Upside Scenario: If a rebound occurs, the 50-day EMA at $1.76 is likely to serve as the first resistance/target.

Momentum Weakening, Spread of Bearish Signals

Ton’s momentum indicators clearly show the current limited upward strength:

• RSI: At 34 on the daily chart, indicating a bearish zone below 50.
• MACD: Experienced a bearish crossover on Wednesday, currently in a downward trend.

This combination of indicators signals that “even if a rebound occurs, its sustainability may be weak.”

Conclusion: “Power Struggle” Between Positive News and Bearish Signals… Cautious Observation Needed

Despite the long-term positive factor of expanding the real asset ecosystem, short-term technical indicators and market sentiment still show strong bearish signals. The current movement around this area is interpreted as a tug-of-war between these conflicting trends. Traders should pay attention to both the potential test of the $1.31 support level and the attempt to break through the $1.76 resistance.