The US economic data continues to improve—GDP growth reaches 4.2%, but this has not driven the market higher; instead, it has sparked some interesting discussions. In the current policy environment, a core contradiction has emerged: the traditional logic of "good economic data → market rally" seems to have become invalid.

The reason lies in the divergence of market participants' expectations regarding policy guidance. The past experience is that good economic data is interpreted as a signal for rate hikes, which often suppress risk assets. This uncertainty about policy expectations has, in fact, become a major factor in restraining the market.

Current policymakers have explicitly expressed different views: strong market growth itself will not generate inflation; the real problem stems from inappropriate policy measures. This perspective directly points to the Federal Reserve's policy stance—future policy focus may shift from "fighting inflation" to "supporting growth." This implies a key change: the rate hike cycle expected by the market could be weakened, and the possibility of rate cuts may be reevaluated.

For the cryptocurrency market, this policy shift is highly significant. Historically, a rate hike environment has put pressure on risk assets; conversely, expectations of easing usually support the performance of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Once market participants are convinced that the Fed's policy stance has changed, expectations for global liquidity will adjust accordingly.

The deeper implication is that this may mark the dissipating of the greatest headwind macro policies have posed to crypto assets. When policy is no longer a restraining factor, market pricing logic will be rewritten. The liquidity-driven upward cycle may be much closer than we think.