Oil in 2025: Is trading and investing still worth it?

Despite the acceleration of renewable energies, oil trading remains one of the most dynamic and profitable markets on the planet. For those considering entering this segment in 2025, understanding the new rules of the game is essential. The real question is not whether investing in oil is viable, but how to do it strategically.

The current scenario: Stabilized prices but with latent pressures

Contrary to what many imagine, oil trading is not in decline. Prices have remained between US$85–95 since 2024, a very different level from the extreme volatility of previous years. This relative stability results from three simultaneous forces:

Supply controlled by OPEC+: The cuts of 2 million barrels/day maintained until mid-2025 support prices. This is currently the main instrument for market control.

Resilient Asian demand: China, after government stimulus measures, has resumed its industrial consumption. This offsets demand reductions in mature economies concerned with energy transition.

Climate pressures increasing costs: Carbon taxation in the European Union and regulatory restrictions have significantly reduced investments in new wells, creating a tighter supply in the long term.

Two decades of volatility: A lesson on timing

To decide if investing in oil makes sense now, it’s helpful to understand how this market has behaved:

In the early 2000s, Brent crude hovered below $30. Then came 2008, when it shot up to $147 in a few months—only to plummet after the financial crisis. The sequence repeated: 2014-2016 showed how excess supply pushed prices below $30 again. The year 2020 was completely anomalous, with prices even turning negative for a brief period during the pandemic chaos.

The recovery in 2021-2022 brought prices back to $100, driven by pent-up demand and geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe. Since then, the market has learned to operate within a more controlled range.

Why investing in oil still makes sense

Yes, clean energies are expanding. But this transition will be gradual, not revolutionary. Three reasons justify keeping oil on the radar:

Sectors with no alternatives: Commercial aviation, maritime transport, petrochemicals, and fertilizers will continue to depend on hydrocarbons for decades. It’s not a matter of choice, but of available technology.

Commodity as monetary hedge: With inflation and high interest rates in 2025, commodities like oil act as a hedge against devaluation. When currency weakens, the price in dollars rises.

Different correlation with stocks and bonds: Adding oil to the portfolio reduces overall volatility precisely because it behaves differently from traditional assets in certain economic scenarios.

Four ways to invest in oil trading

Direct shares of producers

Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) is the obvious choice for those seeking Brazilian exposure. Internationally, ExxonMobil and Chevron offer greater geographic diversification. The risk is concentrated: you buy the company, not just the commodity.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

ETFs like XOP and OIH provide exposure to a basket of companies without concentration risk. They are easier to trade than individual stocks and replicate specific sectors (exploration, services, etc).

Futures contracts

For advanced investors, WTI and Brent futures allow leverage and short-term positions. The trade-off is high risk and the need for constant monitoring.

Contracts for difference (CFDs)

An intermediate modality that offers greater flexibility: you can go long (buy) or short (sell) without holding the physical asset. It offers leverage and is more accessible for beginners, though still requiring caution.

Concrete advantages for your portfolio

Real diversification: Oil moves based on logic different from tech stocks or real estate. When currencies devalue, it rises. When interest rates fall, it rises. This decoupling balances portfolios.

Potential gains from volatility: Although prices are more stable than in the past, oscillations of 5-10% still create opportunities. Those analyzing production data, geopolitical climate, and inventory levels can profit.

Structural demand: It’s not a fad. Cement, plastics, aviation fuel—the list of products with no close substitutes is long. This ensures minimum demand even in pessimistic scenarios.

Gains with inflation: When inflation accelerates, commodities increase in real value. Your purchasing power is better preserved than in traditional monetary assets.

Signals to watch in 2025

Oil trading responds to specific triggers:

OPEC+ decisions: The next announcement on cuts is scheduled for October 2025. Any change in this policy impacts prices within minutes.

Chinese economic data: GDP reports, industrial production, and real estate investment dictate whether Asian demand remains resilient or weakens.

Climate movements: Agreements like COP30 may impose restrictions on new wells, reducing future supply. These events exert upward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, or blockades of maritime trade routes are potential supply shocks.

The verdict

Investing in oil trading in 2025 is not a bet against the future; it’s recognizing a reality: the energy transition will be long, and during this period, hydrocarbons remain essential. Current prices do not offer the extreme profit opportunities of 2008, but they also do not carry the collapse risk seen in 2020.

The secret is choosing the right instrument for your profile—stocks for buy-and-hold, ETFs for diversified exposure, futures for active traders—and always keeping an eye on the indicators that move this complex and fascinating market.