A half-century of golden market trends｜From the collapse of Bretton Woods to reaching new highs in 2025, what will the next 50 years look like?

Gold has played an important role in the economic system since ancient times. Due to its high density, ductility, and durability, it is not only used as a currency but also widely applied in jewelry, industrial fields, and more. Looking back over the past half-century, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations but overall showed a strong upward trend, especially in 2025, setting new all-time highs. Can this bull market spanning over 50 years continue into the next 50 years? How should we interpret gold prices? Is it suitable for long-term allocation or short-term trading? This article will answer these questions one by one.

From $35 to $4,300: How astonishing is the half-century increase in gold?

On August 15, 1971, then-U.S. President Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, ending the Bretton Woods system after World War II. From that moment on, gold prices embarked on a journey of over 50 years of growth.

Reviewing this history, the official gold price rose from $35 per ounce, experiencing geopolitical conflicts, economic crises, and monetary policy adjustments, breaking through $3,700 in the first half of 2025, and reaching a record high of $4,300 per ounce in October. In other words, gold has increased by over 120 times in more than 50 years, a remarkable achievement among traditional assets.

Particularly noteworthy is the performance in 2024. Driven by continuous central bank purchases and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold gained over 104% for the year, becoming one of the strongest assets in recent years. Entering 2025, factors such as escalating Middle East tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, and more continue to support gold prices, pushing them to new highs repeatedly.

The evolution of four major gold bull markets

Tracing back to 1971, the gold market over the past 54 years can be summarized into four distinct upward cycles.

First wave (1970-1975): Confidence crisis after detachment

After the dollar was decoupled from gold, the international gold price soared from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%. The main reasons were market loss of confidence in the dollar, combined with the first oil crisis-induced inflation, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe haven. However, as the oil crisis eased and dollar credibility gradually recovered, gold prices fell back to around $100.

Second wave (1976-1980): Geopolitical catalysts

Gold prices surged again from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%, within just three years. Events such as the second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan heightened global economic uncertainty, driving high inflation in Western countries. But this extreme rally quickly reversed after crises eased and the Soviet Union disintegrated, with gold prices fluctuating between $200 and $300 over the next 20 years.

Third wave (2001-2011): Terrorism and financial crisis perfect storm

The 9/11 attacks ignited this bull market. To fund the war on terror, the U.S. began large-scale rate cuts and debt issuance. Low interest rates boosted housing prices, eventually triggering the 2008 financial crisis. The Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing (QE), leading gold into a decade-long bull run, with a peak of $1,921 during the European debt crisis in 2011.

Fourth wave (2015-present): Central bank easing and geopolitical resonance

In the past decade, gold has risen again. Japan and Europe implemented negative interest rate policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization strengthened. Coupled with the Fed’s frantic QE in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Red Sea crisis, and other events, these collectively pushed gold to establish a new platform above $2,000.

Entering 2024-2025, the pace of gold price increases has accelerated. Risks in U.S. economic policies, central bank purchases, new variables in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade concerns triggered by U.S. tariffs, and the continued weakening of the dollar index all act together to drive gold to repeatedly set new records.

Gold investment returns: Are they really better than stocks?

Looking back over 50 years, gold has indeed performed remarkably. Since 1971, gold has increased by 120 times, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from around 900 points to over 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times. From a purely numerical perspective, long-term returns on gold even outperform stocks.

However, this conclusion hinges on a key premise: you must pick the right timing.

Twenty years ago, gold was around $300. If someone bought gold in 1980, after experiencing a long flat period (price fluctuating between $200 and $300), by 2000, their return would be nearly zero. How many people can wait 50 years?

Therefore, gold is more suitable for swing trading rather than buy-and-hold. Historical patterns show that: a bull market suddenly starts → long-term rise → rapid correction → consolidation → the next bull phase begins. If you can accurately identify and participate in the bull phases or short-term dips, your profit potential will far surpass stocks or bonds.

Another key point is that, as a natural resource, the difficulty and cost of mining increase year by year. Even after a bull market ends, the bottom of gold prices will gradually rise. In other words, gold is unlikely to fall to worthless levels, providing investors with a basic safety margin.

Asset allocation for 2025: Gold vs stocks vs bonds

Although all three are mainstream investment tools, their profit mechanisms differ greatly:

• Gold profits from price differences, with no yield, requiring good timing to profit
• Bonds generate income through interest payments, requiring continuous position increases and judgment of central bank policies
• Stocks profit from corporate growth, requiring fundamental analysis and long-term holding

In terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the easiest, followed by gold, and stocks are the most challenging. But over the past 30 years, stocks have performed the best, followed by gold, with bonds at the bottom.

The market’s golden rule is “allocate stocks during economic growth, allocate gold during recessions.” When the economy is strong, corporate profits rise, and funds flow into stocks; when the economy weakens, gold’s safe-haven nature comes into play. The most prudent approach is to allocate stocks, bonds, and gold according to individual risk tolerance to hedge against market volatility.

Five main ways to invest in gold

1. Physical Gold

Direct purchase of gold bars and other tangible assets. Advantages include asset concealment and the ability to wear jewelry; disadvantages are poor liquidity and inconvenient trading.

2. Gold Certificates

Similar to custody receipts, banks record your gold holdings. Advantages include portability; disadvantages are no interest, large bid-ask spreads, suitable only for long-term holding.

3. Gold ETFs

More liquid than certificates, easier to trade. After purchase, you own corresponding shares representing a certain weight of gold, but the issuing institution charges management fees, and the value may slowly decay during long periods of stability.

4. Gold Futures and CFDs

This is the most popular tool among retail investors. Futures and CFDs are margin trading, low-cost, and support both long and short positions. CFDs, in particular, offer more flexible trading hours, higher capital efficiency, and are especially suitable for short-term swing trading.

Core advantages of CFDs include:

• Flexible trading hours (T+0 mechanism)
• Low capital threshold, suitable for small investors
• Support for both long and short trading
• Ability to set stop-loss and take-profit for risk management
• Fast execution with real-time quotes

If you are bullish on gold, buy XAU/USD to go long; if bearish, sell to go short. The leverage effect greatly amplifies profit potential in swing trading compared to spot trading.

( 5. Other derivatives

Including gold funds, gold mining stocks, and other indirect holding tools, with varying risk and liquidity characteristics.

Will the gold bull market continue over the next 50 years?

Returning to the original question—can gold in the next 50 years replicate its past glory?

The answer depends on three key variables:

1. Global central bank policies — if countries continue easing and de-dollarization, gold will benefit
2. Geopolitical risks — more conflicts mean more safe-haven buying
3. Real economy performance — economic recession will boost gold’s attractiveness

From the current situation, factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, U.S. policy uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases remain, providing support for gold. However, financial markets are unpredictable, and no one can guarantee that history will repeat itself.

The most pragmatic strategy is: not to bet on the next 50 years’ trend, but to dynamically allocate stocks, bonds, and gold in each economic cycle, seize every bull run in gold, and avoid opportunity costs during flat periods—that’s the right way to win in long-term investing.