Regarding the ASTER project, my view is that many investors may have been deeply involved. Many people initially chased into it mainly because they saw holdings by certain top institutions. But there is a risk point that is easily overlooked—the large unlock cycle.

The ARB case is enough to illustrate the problem. From the historical high point, ARB has already fallen more than 70%, and the rebound momentum is quite limited. Why? The key lies in the distribution of chips. On-chain data shows that the average cost basis of the top two largest holding addresses is around 0.2. These low-cost chips naturally are not worried; they have less selling pressure and ample time. In contrast, most retail investors entered at prices around 0.9 to 1.0, and the extent of being trapped is evident.

What is the strategic suggestion for ASTER? Wait until the overall market signals a clear bottom for Bitcoin and Ethereum before gradually entering. Based on the current technical outlook, around 0.5 should be a relatively reasonable position to deploy, which may require a drop of more than 20 points from now. Once this level appears, the rebound potential will be quite significant.

Why is it still worth paying attention? One reason is that there is still enthusiasm within the ecosystem, and another is that next year there are indeed new technological upgrades and application narratives in planning. These can support subsequent rebounds.

If your capital position still has room, it’s also good to look for opportunities to add positions at this level, mainly to lower your average holding cost. Relying solely on waiting for the market to double to get out is indeed very difficult under current market conditions. The current market environment is like this—true strong upward moves are rare, and opportunities to double two or three times are seldom seen. So, as I always say, either patiently wait for lower prices or actively add to your position to lower costs—choose one.