2025-12-24 13:23:48

If 2026 really only sees two rate cuts, then the opening of this liquidity faucet is much tighter than market expectations.

The core logic is simple: as long as the employment market doesn't collapse, the room for rate cuts is limited. For funds still relying on massive liquidity injections, this is undoubtedly a cold shower. The once golden window of liquidity is about to close.

**The macro push is truly waning**. Once interest rate expectations are anchored in 2026, the logic of raising coin prices solely through rate cut narratives no longer holds. The market must find new growth engines instead of lying back and sleeping on macro dividends.

What does this mean? Overall liquidity premiums will shrink significantly, and capital screening will become much more brutal. Assets without real yields or cash flows will be ruthlessly abandoned. Conversely, core assets like BTC spot ETFs and leading L1s will absorb more funds.

**The revaluation of time value also changes the game rules**. In the past, long-term funds bet on continuous rate cuts; now they must face the reality that interest rates may stay high longer. This will directly suppress the space for speculative leverage and more strictly test the actual survival and profitability of projects.

So, what should investors do? Instead of purely betting on macro liquidity, it’s better to focus on selecting strong assets, looking for those that can maintain fundamentals and net capital inflows amid a liquidity retreat.

Sector rotation opportunities often outweigh the overall market rise and fall. At the same time, reduce bets on a single macro narrative and moderately increase hedging arrangements.

Ultimately, this warning from large asset management institutions is very clear: the era of free macro push is over. The upcoming market will rely more on endogenous growth and will test everyone’s coin selection ability.

BTC0.61%

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PaperHandsCriminal

· 15h ago

Only two drops? How am I supposed to survive with this leverage from my all-in move...

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 15h ago

Here comes the macro narrative of cutting leeks again, really boring --- Only twice? Then my leverage is going to blow up --- It still depends on the project itself; the macro is just a cover --- Wait, so should I reduce my position now? --- I knew it a long time ago, so I haven't dared to hold a heavy position --- Large-scale liquidity injection is outdated; now it's about stock picking --- Why didn't you say this earlier? --- Bitcoin can still hold up, but shitcoins are doomed --- Interest rates staying high for so long? Then you need to find cash flow --- Finally someone explained clearly, the macro dividends have indeed declined

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 15h ago

Two interest rate cuts? That means the interest rate cut benefits are almost gone, and you have to choose coins yourself. --- Basically, the macro benefits are exhausted, now it depends on who truly has the survival ability. --- Only after liquidity recedes can we see who is swimming naked. That's correct. --- So trash coins will cool down; this wave is indeed a time of big waves washing away the sand. --- Long-term funds have changed their strategies; they can still make noise in the short term, but the ceiling is lower. --- The idea that macro push is exhausted is too absolute, but indeed, we need new stories. --- BTC and major L1s' bloodsucking is inevitable; others depend on their ability to generate value. --- Instead of betting on the central bank's liquidity, it's better to bet on good projects, which at least have logic. --- Structural opportunities are the core; don't just foolishly wait for the overall market to take off. --- If interest rates stay high, leveraged players will really panic.

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AlwaysAnon

· 15h ago

The faucet is turned off, it's time for the laid-back crowd to wake up. Two interest rate cuts? Those who rely on macroeconomics should seriously think about new opportunities. Basically, the liquidity dividend is gone, and the crypto world needs to return to its fundamentals, which is a bit uncomfortable. It's the days of Bitcoin and top-tier L1s eating the meat, while junk coins are just drinking the soup. Stop betting purely on rate cuts; you need some vision to select targets, or you'll just be taking over others' positions. Staying long at high interest rates squeezes the leverage space to the limit, and the real test of skill is here. The era of free push power is truly over; what supports the coin prices now depends on fundamentals.

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SignatureAnxiety

· 15h ago

Once again, it's that "macro dividend exhaustion" theory, I'm tired of hearing it. --- Two rate cuts are uncertain, but leverage will definitely blow up first. --- Liquidity tightening is not surprising; it mainly depends on who can survive until the end. --- Instead of betting on fundamentals, it's better to bet on narratives—that's the reality. --- Sounds nice, but it's just telling us not to play with trash coins. --- Those who say "filter for strong assets," can they really tell the difference? --- The macro era has ended, but I just want to know whose money is flowing into BTC spot ETFs. --- Let's wait and see; there's still plenty of time before 2026. Don't be so quick to bearish. --- Hedging arrangements? Ha, I don't have enough funds for hedging at all. --- Core assets attracting funds? Someone has to put in money first.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 15h ago

Only two drops? Then it all depends on fundamentals; without macro dividends backing it up, it’s indeed a bit uncomfortable. --- I've seen through it long ago—when liquidity retreats, it’s the time to see who truly has the goods. --- The macro narrative is almost over; it’s definitely time to change your approach, or you’ll just be joining the funeral procession. --- This will truly test your coin-picking eye; the days of lying back and winning effortlessly are gone. --- What does a tight faucet mean? It means those air projects should die. --- I feel market segmentation will become more extreme; everything in the middle will have to die. --- That’s right, instead of betting on rate cuts, it’s better to bet on the bloodsucking ability of BTC spot ETFs. --- Leverage space has been compressed, which is really unfriendly to short-term traders. --- The fact that interest rates are anchored to 2026 has indeed changed the game; the previous logic is completely invalid now. --- Shifting to focus on top-tier assets is the only way out; everything else is just reckless gambling. --- Industry rotation opportunities? Now it’s all about who can hit the right rhythm. --- The era of free push has ended; it sounds a bit hopeless but also quite clear-headed.

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MemeKingNFT

· 15h ago

It's the same "macroeconomic dividend peaks" theory again... I had already bet on this logic last year, and as a result, the coins kept rising while my NFTs cooled off. But to be fair, two rate cuts are indeed quite tight. It seems those still dreaming of a rate cut wave need to wake up.

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