Precious metals reshape investment portfolios: Silver jumps to a new level, and there are still stories to tell in 2026

The structural imbalance in the supply chain is rewriting the trajectory of the precious metals market. Recently, silver has performed particularly well—by the end of November, COMEX silver futures broke the historical record of $54.65 per ounce, and the spot price also closely approached $54.22 per ounce. Since the beginning of 2025, silver has surged by 87%, far surpassing gold’s 57% increase during the same period. What underlying logic is hidden behind this?

Supply gap becomes the core driver of price increases

Silver has been in a state of persistent supply shortage for years, which is no coincidence. The key turning point came with expectations that the U.S. might impose tariffs on silver, triggering a rush to ship silver to New York, leading to a sharp depletion of inventories on other global exchanges. As inventories decrease, forward arbitrage trading becomes more active, further intensifying market tension.

It is worth noting that the COMEX silver 2512 contract has officially entered the delivery notice period. This stage usually accompanies greater volatility, and market participants need to be well prepared. Structurally, this supply-side restriction is expected to continue into 2026, serving as a long-term support for prices.

Monetary policy shift opens growth space for precious metals

The Federal Reserve’s stance shift is also driving market expectations upward. Dovish signals from officials are increasing, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. A loose monetary environment generally boosts non-yielding assets like silver, as investors tend to allocate more physical assets and alternative investments in a low-interest-rate environment.

This rally is not limited to silver; gold, platinum, and other precious metals are also rising collectively. Gold prices are approaching $4,200, reflecting that the entire category of precious metals is benefiting from policy shifts and rising risk aversion.

Looking ahead to next year: structural supply gaps continue to support prices

Michael DiRienzo, CEO of the World Silver Survey, stated that the structural gap is likely to persist into 2026. Deutsche Bank’s forecast is even more explicit—next year, silver will remain in deficit, with an expected average price of $55 per ounce, and the holdings of silver ETFs may surpass the all-time high of 2021.

Goldman Sachs’s analysis further deepens this view. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, private investors are reassessing asset allocations, considering silver, platinum, and palladium as alternatives beyond gold. This diversification trend suggests that the upward momentum of precious metals is far from exhausted.

From structural supply shortages, ongoing policy easing, to rising investor demand, silver prices are expected to remain strong into 2026. The market is re-pricing the intrinsic value of these physical assets.