Gold in 2025: Why Could It Keep Rising? In-Depth Analysis of Forecasts and Trends

The Current Gold Outlook: All-Time Highs and Consolidation

The precious metal has reached unprecedented levels during 2025, approaching the $4,300-$4,350 per ounce range in recent months. This rally has marked a historic contrast: while stocks and cryptocurrencies also hit all-time highs, gold maintained its traditional role as a safe haven, something Bloomberg and Reuters analysts describe as “unprecedented” in modern markets.

Compared to the accumulated returns, the precious metal has gained over 14% so far this year, a figure that directly rivals the returns offered by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, each with gains close to 33-34%. This performance underscores a reality: investors are not abandoning gold for stocks but diversifying simultaneously between both categories.

Will Gold Rise in the Coming Days? Factors Supporting the Rally

The question many ask is whether this upward movement will continue. The answer depends on several structural pillars currently favoring the metal:

Monetary Policy: The Main Catalyst

Expectations around the Federal Reserve remain the primary driver. The market prices in new interest rate cuts (expected in 25 basis points both in October and December), based on perceived expansionist signals from the Fed. This significantly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold in a portfolio, making the metal more competitive against fixed-income assets.

The Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged while assessing inflation trends. However, the gap between current rates and expectations of future cuts creates a bullish compass for gold, especially if inflation does not unexpectedly rebound.

Weak Dollar: Ally of the Precious Metal

The weakening of the US dollar has played a crucial role in recent months. When the dollar loses strength, gold becomes more attractive to investors quoting in other currencies, expanding global demand.

This inverse movement between the dollar and gold is not accidental: moderate US Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions have exerted downward pressure on the currency, benefiting the metal simultaneously.

Structural Demand: Institutional and Official

Flows into gold come from multiple sources. Gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) have experienced significant net inflows, acting as “additional fuel” for the rally. But the most relevant factor is central bank demand: more than a third of the world’s monetary authorities have announced plans to increase their gold reserves during 2025.

China, Poland, and other emerging markets are strengthening their holdings, a move responding both to geopolitical objectives and the need for diversification amid global volatility.

Geopolitics and Safe-Haven Premium

Trade tensions between the US and China, tariff threats on multiple fronts, and ongoing instability in the Middle East have elevated the “risk premium” investors assign to gold. Each escalation in conflict generates rotations toward safe assets.

It is noteworthy that, unlike previous periods, news of “temporary détente” (such as ceasefires) have caused intraday corrections but have not reversed the underlying trend, suggesting investors see gold as a structural, not cyclical, protection.

Technical Levels to Watch in the Next 30 Days

For those following technical analysis, indicators offer mixed signals:

Key Supports and Resistances

• Main resistance: 4,400-4,450 $/oz
• First support: 4,200-4,250 $/oz
• Extension target: 4,500 $/oz

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuates between 50 and 60, a range indicating neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands have narrowed recently, indicating contained volatility that could precede larger directional moves.

During year-end holidays and with typically reduced volumes, movements tend to be “more technical than explosive,” oscillating around well-defined supports and resistances. Unless there are significant macroeconomic surprises, it is likely that the metal remains consolidated at high levels.

Expert Forecasts: Bullish Consensus for 2025

Major investment institutions have raised their price targets for the year:

The consensus points to a range between $2,750 and $2,973 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a potential historic move of up to 10% after the Fed’s first rate cut.

The Story of Gold in 2025: How We Got Here

To understand why gold is where it is, it’s helpful to review key milestones:

January to March: Break of All-Time Highs

The year started with uncertainty over Trump administration policies, but quickly the market interpreted tariffs and trade tensions as supporting safe-haven demand. In March, gold surpassed the psychological barrier of $3,000 per ounce for the first time. The Nasdaq lost over 13% from highs, and the S&P 500 fell more than 10%, catalyzing defensive rotations into gold.

April to June: Accelerated Rally

April saw the peak escalation: tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified, with tariffs reaching 145% on Chinese imports. Gold hit all-time highs near $3,432 per ounce when Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities spiked geopolitical safe-haven demand. The VIX (volatility index) reached three-week highs.

June consolidated these gains, with the metal reaching eleven-week highs after weak US core inflation data (0.1% monthly), reinforcing bets on Fed rate cuts starting in September.

July to September: Corrections and Recovery

The July-August period was more volatile: news of possible rapprochement between the US and Russia caused temporary outflows from gold. However, the interpretation of a “more flexible Fed” caused the metal to rebound nearly 2% in early August. In September, new all-time highs were reached when the metal surpassed $3,600, then peaking at $3,673.95 per ounce. Weak US employment data reinforced expectations of rate cuts.

October to December: Consolidation at Highs

The fourth quarter has seen gold consolidate at record levels, moving between $4,200 and $4,350 per ounce. Central bank purchases intensified, and ETF holdings continued to grow. The biggest volatility came from rumors of trade détente, but each correction was followed by recovery, suggesting demand floors are solid.

When Could Gold Stop? Downside Risks

Not everything is bullish. There are factors that could limit further advances:

Unexpected Strength of the Dollar

If upcoming Fed decisions turn out less flexible than current expectations, or if US economic data surprise upward, the dollar could strengthen, pressuring gold lower.

Inflation Surprises

An unexpected acceleration of inflation could alter the rate cut narrative, limiting the metal’s attractiveness.

Resolution of Geopolitical Tensions

If conflicts are resolved or risk perception diminishes, the safe-haven premium supporting gold could compress.

Rotations into Equities

With stocks at all-time highs, a particularly strong earnings season could redirect flows from gold into equities.

Gold as an Investment: Ways to Participate

For those considering adding gold to their portfolios, multiple options exist:

Physical Gold Buying bars or coins provides tangible possession, ideal for those seeking direct physical security. Storage and insurance costs should be considered.

Mining Stocks and ETFs Investing in mining companies or specialized ETFs offers indirect exposure without the complications of physical storage.

Derivative Instruments Contracts for difference (CFD) allow speculation on price without physical possession, offering opportunities in both bullish and bearish markets, though with higher risks.

Conclusion: Gold Will Continue to Attract Demand

All signs point to gold rising in the coming days and weeks, supported by anticipated rate cuts, dollar weakness, structural central bank demand, and the safe-haven premium generated by geopolitical tensions. Technical levels suggest sideways movements with a positive bias during the holiday period, before potential new impulses in January.

The precious metal has proven to be both a diversification asset and an effective hedge against inflation and volatility. With institutions raising their price targets and official demand demonstrating strength, gold maintains its position as “the wildcard of 2025,” according to leading market analysts.