The central bank precisely guides the appreciation of the RMB, which will reach the critical level of 6.85 in 2026.

The pace of RMB appreciation continues to accelerate. As of November 26, the onshore USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.0824, and the offshore USD/CNH exchange rate is 7.0779, both hitting lows not seen in over a year. More notably, the CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index rose to 98.22 on November 21, reaching a high not seen since April this year.

Behind this appreciation trend, the proactive guidance of the central bank has played a decisive role. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has continuously raised the daily midpoint rate, pushing the upper boundary within the legal fluctuation range, while state-owned banks have been steadily buying US dollars to stabilize volatility. This combination ensures the stability of RMB appreciation rather than sharp fluctuations. The Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate cuts has further created an external environment conducive to RMB appreciation.

Clear Internationalization Goals, Data Demonstrates Market Response

From a strategic perspective, the central bank’s intentions are clear—strengthening the stable and robust image of the RMB to accelerate its international status. This approach is quite meaningful; industry insiders compare it to the performance of the RMB during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, when the RMB refused to engage in competitive devaluation and became a regional confidence anchor.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) provides strong evidence. The average daily trading volume of USD to RMB has increased by nearly 60% since the 2022 survey, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of the total global daily foreign exchange trading volume. This growth rate and scale reflect the rising international market recognition driven by RMB appreciation.

Senior Asia macro strategist at Société Générale commented that demonstrating RMB’s stability and resilience in the current complex market environment provides substantial support for promoting RMB internationalization. In contrast, during the 2018 trade war, the RMB depreciated by about 5%, whereas by 2025, RMB has appreciated close to 3%, forming a stark contrast. This counter-trend appreciation highlights the determination behind policy adjustments.

Goldman Sachs Target Price: Appreciating to 6.85 by 2026

Regarding the outlook for RMB appreciation, Goldman Sachs’ analysis team has made a clear forecast. Based on the central bank’s confirmed recognition of the strong trend, the bank expects the exchange rate to reach 1 USD to 7 RMB by the end of the year, and further appreciate to 6.85 in 2026.

Pantheon Macroeconomics senior economist further pointed out that from a macro strategic perspective, China clearly intends to build international credibility through the stable image of the RMB. This will elevate RMB internationalization to a core policy for many years. In the coming years, the acceleration of RMB internationalization will not only be reflected in exchange rate data but also in multiple dimensions such as cross-border usage and reserve currency share.