#BTC The on-chain data for Bitcoin is really hard to watch right now, with confirmed outflows below 110,000, and long-term holders are also aggressively distributing. Clearly, the big players are not convinced by this slight rebound at this level.

Currently, the daily chart's "inverted cup and handle" pattern is almost complete. If this script plays out, a 1:1 retracement could directly target around 72,000-73,000. Although the larger timeframe is bearish, a rapid decline will likely be followed by a rebound.
In the short term, focus on the gap around 89,000-90,000. If it can push up through that, it could be a good short-term high-altitude opportunity, but keep an eye on the market, as the odds are not as high as they were at 94,000.

On a macro level, I feel this wave will most likely replicate the 2019 trend: ending QT (balance sheet reduction) in October 2019, buying back US debt. Then, in February 2020, the halt of T-Bill repurchases, stock market plummeting, and emergency QE in March, leading to market taking off.
The current market doesn't necessarily have to follow that kind of devastating crash; it could be a slow, "boiling frog" decline, gradually bottoming out, waiting for macro liquidity to improve before a rally.

#XRP Speaking of XRP, it is arguably the weakest among the top five by market cap. SOL has slightly broken through the downtrend line, but XRP is still being tightly suppressed.
On the weekly chart, XRP's M-top has already broken, and the 1.635 gap is basically a "must fill" zone. Looking deeper, below 1.78 is a true chip vacuum zone. If it drops, it could slide very smoothly, with a possibility of filling the 1.26 level or even lower.