#美联储回购协议计划 The Fed is caught in a classic policy dilemma—maximizing employment and stabilizing prices cannot be achieved simultaneously, a situation reminiscent of the stagflation era of the 1970s. Internal opinions are divided, and it is expected that this split will continue until 2026.

In 2025, Trump's policy adjustments put the Fed in a somewhat passive position. On one hand, it needs to maintain its independence, while on the other hand, it faces political pressure, which directly exacerbates the conflict between inflation and employment. The decision to lower interest rates three times at the beginning of the year was controversial in itself, and the government shutdown led to unclear economic data, making decision-making even more difficult.

As we enter 2026, the situation may become more complicated. The new chairman's assumption of office, the ongoing data gap, and the potential only opportunity for a rate cut... These factors combined make it even more difficult for the Fed to reach a consensus internally.

From the perspective of $BTC and $ETH, whether the liquidity after the year-end Christmas market can continue has become a question. Against the backdrop of so much uncertainty in central bank policies, market liquidity itself is prone to tightening, which is not very friendly to the short-term trends of crypto assets. Waiting and observing may be a more rational choice at the moment.