#美联储回购协议计划 On the eve of Christmas, the performance of the US stock market staged a contrast drama – a GDP growth rate of 4.2% was released, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%. Normally, this would be considered Favourable Information; however, the stock market hovered in a Sideways trend with slight adjustments, not following the usual pattern of "data exceeding expectations leads to a surge."

The logic behind this is quite interesting. Some voices from Wall Street interpreted this set of data and imagined a chain of "strong economy → inflation pressure → the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates", which instead discounted the original Favourable Information. The result is that the market has fallen into a bizarre state: good news has arrived but there is no corresponding upward trend.

From a macro perspective, strong economic growth does not necessarily directly lead to an inflationary spiral. If policy direction clearly supports market liquidity, GDP growth may continue to expand by 10-20 percentage points within the next 12 months. Inflation issues can often be addressed through more precise policy adjustments, rather than having to preemptively raise interest rates to "cut off the fuel at the source."

The collision between policy expectations and market realities will ultimately fall back on the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies. If the new leadership of the Federal Reserve can understand the balance between "interest rate cuts support growth" and "targeted inflation control," the market may find its normal rhythm of "favourable information leads to rises, negative information leads to falls" again. Conversely, if the traditional mindset of "good data → interest rate hike expectations" continues to be used, this state of market "numbness" may persist.

For crypto assets and risk assets, the fluctuations in policy expectations themselves are an important reference. Strong GDP data is a fact, but the lukewarm market sentiment also reflects genuine concerns about the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy.