2025 Bitcoin Review and 2026 Outlook

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Retrospective 2025: See how the year of Bitcoin was and what to expect in 2026 Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/retrospectiva-2025-veja-como-foi-o-ano-do-bitcoin-e-o-que-esperar-de-2026/

Bitcoin Performance in 2025

The year 2025 ended in a somewhat disappointing manner for Bitcoin, with prices far below the $126,000 gold figure reached in October. Although the initial enthusiasm sparked by Trump's return to the presidency led the market to believe that BTC would hit a new high in December, this expectation ultimately fell short.

However, calling this year disappointing would be a factual error. Bitcoin has operated above $100,000 for nearly the entire year, repeatedly setting new historical highs and truly entering the institutional framework of the global financial market. Bitcoin has now become an investment option considered alongside mature financial products such as Nasdaq stocks, commodities, and government bonds.

The head of research at a certain exchange stated that 2025 is the most important year for the institutionalization of Bitcoin, a process that actually began in 2024. This expert emphasized that while the transition started with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the real regulatory changes occurred during Trump's term in office this year.

Key turning points include policy adjustments regarding cryptocurrencies, the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States, the approval of various altcoin ETFs, and the surge of Bitcoin financial management companies.

A compliance platform's head for the Americas has also defined 2025 as a watershed moment for the institutionalization of Bitcoin. When assets continue to operate above $100,000 and set new highs, what we witness is not just a price phenomenon, but the consolidation of trust infrastructure. Initiatives like leading asset management companies allowing their 8 million clients to access cryptocurrency ETFs symbolize clear institutionalization — Bitcoin has transformed from a niche asset into a strategic component of diversified portfolios.

The founder of a trading platform summarized: Bitcoin is now considered an asset, not an experiment.

Analysis of 2026

From a structural analysis perspective, the trend of Bitcoin is upward, although there will be fluctuations in the short term. Bitcoin continues to respond to liquidity, interest rates, and risk appetite, but there is now a institutional foundation that will not disappear at the first sign of volatility. This changes the dynamics. Fluctuations will continue to exist, but the long-term bias remains positive.

Experts point out that Bitcoin has a chance to reach a new high next year, and the asset should only operate below $80,000 when significant macro factors occur.

Currently, there are two views on Bitcoin in 2025: one follows the classic four-year cycle model associated with halving, while the other believes that the asset is now more closely linked to economic indicators that manage the global financial market, and therefore may experience more sustained fluctuations.

Bitcoin Price History in 2025

The first major moment for Bitcoin came on January 6, when it reclaimed the $100,000 mark for the first time this year. At that time, the market still indicated that this surge was a result of the Trump effect: the elected president stated during the campaign that the United States would become the global capital of cryptocurrency and that the country would establish a BTC strategic reserve.

But this is just a slight hint of things to come. On January 20, Trump's inauguration date, Bitcoin hit a historic high of $108,786. The Republicans did not mention BTC in the inauguration speech, but the market was ecstatic.

But the honeymoon period was very short. Less than two months later, on March 10, Bitcoin had already dropped to the range of $79,000. This poor outcome reflects Trump's tariff policy, which imposed additional taxes on imports from almost all countries (which were later retracted multiple times), and Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could potentially experience a recession.

By the end of the first quarter, Bitcoin has dropped by 10% this year. This is the worst performance of the asset during this period since 2020.

But the worst has yet to come. On April 8, Bitcoin hit its annual low, dropping to the $76,000 range. This is a complete negative reaction from the global financial markets to Trump's decision to maintain tariff policies.

After that, Bitcoin began its real annual ascent: on May 22, it reached a historical high of $111,544. On July 10, BTC reached $112,055, driven by a globally high liquidity environment, the surge in the tech sector, and the inflow of institutional investments into crypto assets and Bitcoin ETFs.

On July 13, it reached a new high again. Bitcoin broke through the $119,000 mark, driven by a tweet from a CEO of a certain company about large-scale purchases of cryptocurrency. A day later, it reached another new high: $122,780.

The level of $123,000 was reached on August 13, driven by deeper interest rate cut pressures on the US economy after the US inflation report showed the index remained stable.

Finally, on October 6, Bitcoin reached its historical peak that still exists today: $126,080.

Despite record prices, it seems that another October rise will ultimately not happen. Bitcoin has started to decline, facing selling pressure from large holders taking profits and traditional market investors' fears. By the end of the year, Bitcoin remains in the range just below $90,000.

What is concerning is the potential signs of a bear market – the number of bitcoins that have not moved for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins since the beginning of 2023, equivalent to about $14 billion. The decline in the level of untouched coins actually means that long-term holders are engaging in ongoing sell-offs. This year, nearly $300 billion worth of bitcoins have resumed circulation after being inactive for over a year.

Bitcoin Mining in 2025

Bitcoin mining difficulty continued to set records throughout 2025. In January, it reached 1.0978 trillion hashes. In August, the metric reached 1.29 trillion. At that time, Bitcoin transaction fees fell below 1% of the block reward for the first time.

But so far, the record for mining difficulty was set on November 9, reaching 155 trillion hashes.

An interesting piece of data is the increase in the amount of non-monetary value information recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain, which at some point this year reached about 37% of block space, primarily dominated by projects like OP_RETURN and Ordinals. In fact, this corresponds to approximately 0.58 MB per block, with a total average between 1.5 and 1.6 MB.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves in the United States

One factor shaking the crypto market is the highly anticipated U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. On March 6, the president signed an executive order authorizing the creation of a digital asset treasury.

The White House subsequently announced that the reserve will consist of Bitcoin that has been seized by the federal government as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture lawsuits. The United States holds approximately 200,000 BTC, which is worth about 17 billion dollars at the price of $88,000 at the time of this report.

Despite the initial impact of the announcement, the initiative has made little progress in practice. The executive order did not automatically create reserves or authorize the purchase of Bitcoin, limiting itself to organizing and researching the use of seized assets. Operational issues (such as custody, auditing, accounting standards, and defining who will manage the inventory) have hindered implementation and cooled market expectations.

In addition, there are legal and political obstacles. Any structural changes, such as allowing additional acquisitions or converting Bitcoin into a permanent strategic asset, often require congressional approval and coordination among federal agencies, which has not occurred to date.

New Bitcoin Core Version

On April 15, the Bitcoin Core software version 29.0 was released, which is the most commonly used software for running nodes on the Bitcoin network. As a critical component of the ecosystem, this program is responsible for verifying transactions, propagating blocks, and maintaining the integrity of the decentralized system that supports the largest cryptocurrency.

According to the official blog of the Bitcoin Core team, one of the most relevant changes in the new version is the fix of a technical error that prevented block mining at the maximum size allowed by network rules. Until then, even with the correct configuration, mined blocks were slightly below the limit of 4 million unit weight. Starting from version 29.0, the issue has been resolved, provided that miners adjust the parameters appropriately.

On October 13, the Bitcoin Core version 30.0 was released, bringing one of the most discussed changes recently: the allowance of data space in the OP_RETURN field increased from 80 bytes to nearly 4 MB per transaction.

This change greatly expands the types of content that can be stored directly on the blockchain, sparking debates about the use of the network beyond just currency transfer purposes.

The OP_RETURN field is used to embed arbitrary data in Bitcoin transactions and has always been restricted to prevent abuse. Now, with the new version, developers have made this rule more flexible by allowing multiple OP_RETURN outputs per transaction, with the new aggregate limit set to a default of 100,000 bytes.