#BTC资金流动性 International Interest Rate Adjustment Landing ≠ buy the dip signal

Recently, I keep hearing a saying:

"Wait for the interest rate adjustment to take effect, a drop is an opportunity to buy in."

But flipping through the historical candlestick charts reveals a rather counterintuitive phenomenon — the toughest market conditions generally do not occur on the day they are announced.

Regardless of the adjustments in March, July 2024, or January 2025, the day of the announcement usually sees a quick spike of 5%-8%, followed by a quick pullback. It looks like "the bad news has been priced in," which particularly attracts the first wave of buy the dip funds to enter the market.

But the real problem starts from here.

In the following 2 to 4 weeks, the market entered a strange phase:

The trading volume is shrinking little by little. The rebound is weak. The price is not crashing, but rather slowly moving down while simultaneously consolidating sideways. The sentiment is being gradually drained.

This kind of market is the most tormenting.

Without the fear of a major crash, you are only given long-term disappointment.

The structural trend is also remarkably similar:

First, stick a needle to create the illusion that "the bottom is in sight"; then, the price repeatedly rubs against the needle's bottom, gradually wearing down the confidence of the bulls; finally, even those who stubbornly hold on to buy the dip funds can't withstand it and exit, only then can the market be considered to have truly digested.

In other words, the interest rate adjustment is more like a "time-based bearish signal."

It's not the end of the day, but rather exchanging time for space.

In this structure, the people who are often hurt the most are not those who chase the high, but rather those who enter the market too early and cannot withstand the downward trend.

A smarter approach is:

Stay calm when a rebound occurs, and don't rush to buy.

Gradually taking profits on short positions in a weak market.

Consider switching your mindset only after the trend has truly completed.

The market is not short of people willing to take action. What is lacking is someone who can let the bullets fly for a while.

Ask yourself a question: After two weeks of continuous decline, bottoming out, and no rebounds, can your mindset hold up?

If it is negative, then there is no need to prove oneself.

The real bottom opportunity never happens just once.