#美联储降息 The Fed's decision tonight has become a "political pressure test", and this signal is worth following.

A 25 basis point rate cut is basically a done deal (87.6% probability), but the real highlight is the voting divergence—5 out of the 12 voting members of the FOMC oppose or are skeptical about further easing, marking the first occurrence since 2019 and making this one of the most controversial meetings in recent years. The dot plot will be very interesting, as it is expected to show a clear divergence among members regarding the trajectory in 2026.

From a copy trading perspective, this policy uncertainty is reshaping market pricing. JPMorgan has indicated that US stocks may face a wave of profit-taking as interest rate cut expectations have been fully reflected. The probability of no rate cut in January has risen to 68%, indicating that the market is beginning to reassess the easing space. The economic data in March and June next year will be the real watershed—hawkish members are waiting for opportunities.

Several experts I have recently observed have started to adjust their position weights, shifting from simply chasing gains to a diversified strategy: part following aggressive traders' short-term swings, and another part turning to more conservative traders for mid-term positions. An expansion signal (if announced) will provide liquidity support, but the strength of this support is difficult to assess at the moment.

It is recommended to temporarily increase the sensitivity of stop-loss orders, as volatility can easily escalate during periods of policy divergence, especially with Powell's wording. Lock in some profits before the end of the year and keep an eye on the economic data performance before the January meeting, as that will be key to determining the pace for 2026.