2025: The darkest year for the crypto market, and also the dawn of the institutional era.

2025-12-22 10:19:24

In 2025, the crypto market appeared to be the “worst”: BTC annual -5.4%, ETH -12%, mainstream altcoins -35% to -60%. Traditional assets, however, shone brightly: silver +130%, gold +66%, copper +34%, Nasdaq +20.7%, S&P +16.2%.

The overall sentiment in the market is bearish, but the truth is: this is not a bear market; rather, it is a fundamental shift in market structure—from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Institutional holdings account for 24%, retail net selling is at 66%, and ETF net inflows are 25 billion, with AUM exceeding 1.1 trillion… 2025 will be the year of the largest supply turnover! Forget the old four-year cycle; the institutional era has new rules: long-term narratives are established, and price is merely a transitional cost.

2025 Asset Performance Comparison: Crypto “Worst”, Yet Hiding the Biggest Signal

Asset Class	2025 Annual Return	Key Data/Interpretation
Silver	+130%	Leading the commodity bull market
Gold	+66%	Strong safe-haven demand
Copper	+34%	Industrial Demand
Nasdaq	+20.7%	Tech stocks strong
S&P 500	+16.2%	Broad Stock Market
BTC	-5.4%	Retracement after reaching a new high of 126,000
ETH	-12%	relatively weak
Mainstream altcoin	-35% to -60%	Speculative assets plunge

The surface looks bleak, but BTC reached a new high of 126,000 during this period—while declining, institutions are accumulating.

Institutions vs Retail Investors: The Shift of Dominance Is Complete

The biggest change in 2025: the market shifts from being dominated by retail investors to institutional allocation.

Indicator	Data	Interpretation
BTC ETF net inflow	25 billion USD	AUM 1.14-1.2 trillion
Institutional Holdings Ratio	24%	13F Filing + Professional Investors Lead
BlackRock IBIT	AUM 50 billion (228 days), holding 800,000 BTC	Surpassing MicroStrategy, becoming the largest holder
Retail Behavior	Decreased active addresses, low searches, small transactions down 66%	Net sell of 247,000 BTC (23 billion)
Long-term holders sell	1.4 million BTC (121.1 billion)	Three waves of selling, institutions fully take on

Retail investors have exited 66%, institutions are accumulating - the price has been stagnant for a year, and supply turnover has been completed.

Why is 2025 the “worst” yet the dawn of the institutional era?

ETF Watershed: After approval in January 2024, institutional macro investors, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds will enter the market.
Correlation Rise: The correlation between BTC and the S&P rose from 0.29 to 0.5, becoming a “risk asset”.
Policy Friendly: Trump executive order, strategic reserve of 200,000 BTC, GENIUS Act, change of SEC chairman
Strong digestion ability: Holding and selling 1.4 million BTC for a long time without price collapse—institutional support.

2025 is not the peak, but rather the “institutional accumulation period”: narrowing volatility, central axis elevation, and new rules for structural rises.

2026 Outlook: Three Scenarios and Investment Logic

Time Period	Expectation	Driving Factors	Price Target
Short-term (3-6 months)	87-95k oscillation	Institutions continue to accumulate	Sideways digestion
Mid-term (First half of 2026)	Policy honeymoon + dual drive from institutions	Market structure legislation, sovereign fund allocation	120-150k
Long-term (Second half of 2026)	Increased volatility	Uncertainty of mid-term elections	Watch for policy continuity

Institutional targets: VanEck 180,000, StanChart 175,000-250,000, Tom Lee 150,000, Grayscale new high in the first half of 2026.

Risk: macro tightening, regulatory delays, election uncertainties. But the opportunities outweigh the risks - institutional allocation has just begun.

Final Summary: Transition from the Old World to the New World

2025 “worst performance” essence: retail speculation → institutional allocation transition, price is the cost. ETF inflow of 25 billion, the most favorable policies, the most complete infrastructure, and the highest supply turnover - these are the biggest signals. Institutions are building positions on the left while retail investors are confused, wondering “will it drop further?” — this is the cognitive gap. 2026 is not a predicted price, but rather a recognition of structural trends: the era of institutions, rebuilding pricing power. Stay rational and patient - the new cycle has quietly dawned in the darkness of 2025.

What do you think about the crypto market trend in 2026? Let's chat in the comments section～ A. The first half of the year is bullish, the second half is volatile. B. Institutional bull, yearly new high C. Continue to consolidate, bottoming out. D. Risks are too high, cash is on the sidelines.

Take one step at a time—In the institutional era, the rules have changed!

BTC1,49%

ETH0,88%

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