Next week, the Santa Claus rally is coming! The S&P has a 79% rise probability, with an average increase of 1.3%.

Starting next week, the US stock market will officially enter the “Santa Claus Rally”: the week after Christmas (the last 5 trading days of the year + the first 2 trading days of the next year). Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has a 79% probability of rising, with an average increase of 1.3%, a maximum of 7.4%, and a minimum of -4.2%.

This is not just simple seasonality, but a risk appetite barometer: a rise confirms year-end optimism, laying the groundwork for pricing in the following year; a decline indicates weakness and fluctuations in January. BTC's weekend turnover rate has decreased, exposing the reality of low trading volume—next week's Christmas market may become a barometer for Q1 2026. If seasonality + emotional vacuum + recovery of liquidity still do not lead to a rise, high interest rates may overshadow the holiday boost.

Santa Claus Historical Market Data Overview

This week (the last 5 trading days + the first 2 days of the next year) usually sees low trading volume and small fluctuations, where a small amount of buying can easily push up the index.

Why is the Christmas market a barometer of risk appetite?

• Meaning of Pump: In the absence of new macroeconomic stimuli, investors are still willing to allocate to risk assets—year-end optimism confirms and lays a positive foundation for pricing in 2026.
• Meaning of Decline: Risk appetite has not recovered; January and even longer periods are prone to weakness/oscillation.

System + seasonal factors support:

• After tax-loss harvesting in mid-December, funds will flow back.
• During the holiday, institutional activity decreases, trading shrinks, and buying pressure tends to dominate.
• Year-end bonus + pension (401k) automatic deductions, passive cash inflow

The strength of the Christmas market often indicates the trend for Q1 of the following year.

BTC Perspective: Weekend turnover rate drops, exposing true low trading volume

• The weekend turnover rate has significantly decreased, indicating that the high turnover during weekdays is mostly due to quantitative/high-frequency short-term trading.
• Real holders have very low transaction volume - Market depth is shallow, and fluctuations can easily amplify.
• Next week's Christmas market: overall trading/turnover is expected to further decline, liquidity vacuum period

This Christmas market = 2026Q1 expected litmus test:

• If seasonally favorable conditions + emotional vacuum + liquidity recovery occur, BTC/U.S. stocks still do not rise - high interest rates have suppressed the economy beyond the holiday sentiment boost.
• Conversely, if it rises as scheduled: risk appetite recovery, the probability of a good start in 2026 is high.

Year-end low trading + seasonality often amplifies the impact of a small amount of capital - directional signals are more worth paying attention to.

What do you think about the Christmas market next week? Let's chat in the comments～ A. Expected to pump, optimistic for 2026Q1 B. Continue to oscillate, high interest rates suppress C. BTC independent market, not following US stocks D. Low transaction volume, random fluctuations

Take a step, look at a step – will Santa Claus come?