Fu Penghua's key points at the Alpha Summit speech: The uncertainty of AI applications remains, leading to an increase in Volatility.

2025-12-22 10:02:15

Yesterday, Fu Peng delivered a speech at the Alpha Summit in Hua, full of valuable insights. The class representative came to highlight the key points! The first two images set the background: the essence of the stock market corresponds to efficiency (total factor productivity), AI infrastructure enhances productivity on the supply side, and the application side reshapes production relationships; there is no uncertainty on the infrastructure end for companies like NVIDIA, transitioning from “investing in tracks to rise in valuations” in the primary market to differentiation in the mature phase, with Cathie Wood underperforming NVIDIA.

Core third chart explodes: The uncertainty of AI applications remains, and volatility continues to rise; the US stock market, which should have surged, is repeatedly suppressed by the Fed's easing, trading time for space in delay; but it can't last until 2026, results must come out - if the application side is falsified, not only will Nvidia/US stocks collapse, but global equities + major assets will all collapse, and the entire human economy will be doomed! (138 characters)

Speech Background and Core Points Breakdown

1. The essence of the stock market and the dual impact of AI (first two images)

Fu Peng uses two images as a foundation:

Key Points of the Chart	Details	Interpretation
Figure 1: Stock Market = Efficiency	Total Factor Productivity is not just productivity, but also production relations + system	AI infrastructure side (hardware) mainly enhances productivity, application side (software) reshapes relations
Figure 2: Infrastructure Maturity	Pre-2022 Primary Market Model: Invest in All Tracks, rise in Valuation	Afterwards, the valuation is killed entering the growth period, with serious differentiation, track funds (like Cathie Wood) underperforming Nvidia

The uncertainty in infrastructure has dissipated, with leaders like Nvidia emerging victorious—it's the application side that is the biggest variable currently.

2. Core Viewpoint: Application Uncertainty Dominates the 2026 Grand Conclusion (Third Graph)

Fu Peng hits the nail on the head:

Opinion	Details	Potential Consequences
Uncertainty in application not eliminated	Volatility continues to rise	US stocks should have surged, but were repeatedly suppressed by easing
Federal Reserve “buying time”	Time for space, providing a buffer for application development	Loose monetary policy suppressing valuations, delaying an outbreak
Cannot drag past 2026	Must produce results next year	Application-side landing or falsification becomes key
If disproved	Not just Nvidia/U.S. stocks crash	Global equities + major asset classes all crash, “all humanity is doomed”

Fu Peng warned: If AI applications (transformation of production relations) fail, no matter how strong the infrastructure side is, it will be in vain—there is an unprecedented risk of systemic collapse.

Why is 2026 a key node?

Application-side uncertainty: Infrastructure (such as GPUs) is mature, while applications (such as Agents and vertical industry implementation) remain unknown.
Role of the Federal Reserve: Loosening “delays” the outbreak of volatility, giving time to validate applications.
The limit arrives: By 2026, applications must yield results, or confidence will collapse, transmitting through global assets.

Fu Peng's essence: AI is not merely a technological bull, but a dual revolution of productivity and relationships. If application fails, the bubble will burst not only for tech stocks, but the entire economic chain will suffer.

The speech is full of valuable insights: don't just focus on the infrastructure frenzy, the application side is the key to success or failure. In 2026, it could be heaven or hell.

What do you think about Fu Peng's statement “results will come next year”? Let's discuss in the comments. A. Agreed, the application landing determines everything B. Too pessimistic, the infrastructure is already strong enough. C. The Federal Reserve can continue to delay D. A global collapse is impossible.

Take one step at a time - the AI spectacle will reveal itself in 2026!

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