The biggest illusion of altcoins FDV: 37 million types of Tokens dilute everything, 84.7% of new coins fall below the issue price after TGE!

The most brutal truth of the crypto market in 2025: the FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of alts is the biggest illusion of this cycle! According to Memento Research, among this year's 118 TGEs, 84.7% of new coins have fallen below the issue price, with only 15% maintaining a pump, leaving most early investors deep in paper losses. Even scarier: there are over 37 million global crypto tokens—there are a total of 60,000 to 70,000 listed companies, making the number of tokens over 500 times greater! But funds and attention will not grow 500 times; with every new coin, the pricing power of all old coins gets diluted a bit. Most people only follow a dozen or so assets, while the remaining tens of millions of tokens become “unnoticed” after the TGE ends. Long-term holding of alts to make big money? It's almost entirely survivor bias!

( Source: Memento Research )

The Tragic Situation of Altcoins Falling Below the Issue Price: 84.7% of New Coins Suffer Heavy Losses After TGE

Memento Research 2025 Data Hits the Pain Points:

High FDV overestimation + unlocking pressure, new coins face a “death spiral” from birth — liquidity is thin after TGE, and selling pressure exceeds buying pressure.

The absurdity of 37 million Tokens: 500 times the listed company, yet no 500 times the funds

Terror comparison:

With each new coin added, the pricing power of all existing coins is diluted a little. Reality: Retail/institutional investors only focus on a few leading coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, while the remaining tens of millions of Tokens have had “no audience” since TGE - liquidity dries up, and price going to zero is the norm.

Long-term holding of alts to make big money? It's all survivor bias!

• The “10x” and “100x” stories you hear are from a very small number of survivors.
• Ignored the silent majority that 99% go to zero/fall below the issue price.
• In a market of 37 million Tokens, relying on holding alts for a turnaround = the probability of winning the lottery.

FDV Illusion: High valuation during TGE seems “limitless potential”, but after unlocking, selling pressure + dilution quickly brings it back to reality.

What does this mean for investors?

• Short-term: Don't be impulsive with the new Token TGE, 84.7% fall below the issue price is not a joke.
• Medium-term: Funds concentrate on leading coins, the survival space for alts is extremely compressed.
• Long-term: The crypto market matures = survival of the fittest, with tens of millions of Tokens mostly going to zero, leaving only a few quality ones alive.

Stop dreaming of the “next 100x altcoin” — in a sea of 37 million tokens, attention is the most scarce resource. Focusing on a few high-quality assets is the way to survive in this cycle.

What altcoins do you still hold? Let's chat in the comments～ A. Full liquidation, only holding BTC/ETH B. A few potential alts, hold tightly C. Still waiting for a double to break even D. Must participate in the new coin TGE

Take a step and see how it goes—don't get buried when the illusion shatters!