#减半机制 Seeing this market wave, what comes to mind are those stories from years past. Around the 2016 Halving, I remember BTC rising from $650 to $1000, and at that time, it was also this triangular pattern, with mixed voices, and some were bearish while others were bullish.

This time, the first Halving of TAO has indeed elicited a market reaction worth pondering. The logic of the halving mechanism is actually quite simple—supply decreases, and if demand remains unchanged or even increases, the price should go up. But the problem is that market pricing often reflects this expectation in advance. I have seen coins that doubled in price before the halving, only to adjust afterward, as well as the opposite situation. So what is the current rhythm? The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut combined with a $45 billion liquidity injection serves as an external catalyst. The TAO halving acts like a time window, and the market is waiting for this signal.

The triangular pattern of BTC actually reflects the tug-of-war between bulls and bears—testing the range of 86,000 to 89,000 repeatedly indicates that the main force is still probing the bottom willingness. The significance of ETH stabilizing at 3000 is even deeper; it is a psychological barrier as well as a technical level. If a real breakthrough comes, it will be very swift.

This reminds me of the cycle in 2017, where the signal before a big surge is often characterized by this "directionless but increasing volatility" state. When liquidity is ample, policies are relaxed, and technical patterns are clear, history has never wasted such a combination. It doesn’t mean that prices will definitely rise, but the probability scale is tilting.

In the short term, breaking through and following up is the safest approach. However, in terms of long-term logic—Halving cycles combined with loose expectations, the framework of this story still holds.