#大户持仓动态 Recently, a major news broke: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that if wage growth continues to push up prices, they will consider raising interest rates. The global macroeconomic trend has suddenly shifted, and the crypto world must also stay alert.

Having traded for many years, my first reaction is to analyze on-chain data. The recent weeks' fund movements are quite interesting — inflows into major exchanges are increasing, although there hasn't been much action from whales on Bitcoin, but outflows of stablecoins are actually rising. What does this indicate? Short-term market liquidity is under pressure. Once Japan truly begins its rate hike cycle, hot money is likely to flow back into traditional financial markets, and the risk of capital being withdrawn from the crypto market is not small. My judgment is that in the next one or two months, the market is very likely to enter a phase of oscillation and correction, so there's no need to panic.

But there's no need for excessive panic either. Looking at the longer term, on-chain fundamental indicators remain solid — position sizes haven't broken key levels, and the number of long-term holders (HODLers) continues to grow. The logic of the crypto market itself hasn't changed; the development foundation of tracks like DeFi and Layer2 remains strong. Short-term declines are more of an ambush opportunity than a risk. I still remain optimistic about the market trend for next year.

$ETH