#比特币市场分析 Years like flowing water, witnessing all the twists and turns of the crypto market. Recently, I heard that on Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 again within this year has reached 51%, which makes me think of the crazy bull market in 2017. Back then, many confidently predicted that Bitcoin would break through $100,000, but as everyone knows, the outcome was different.

Over the years, I have seen too many projects fall from heaven to hell, and I have also seen some reborn from the ashes like a phoenix. As the industry's flagship, Bitcoin has experienced countless ups and downs. Every surge is accompanied by fanatic enthusiasm, and every plunge triggers a wave of lamentations.

Looking back at history, it’s not hard to see that market sentiment often swings to extremes. When most people believe Bitcoin will rise to $100,000, it often signals that a bubble is about to burst. Conversely, when people lose confidence in Bitcoin, it may be the perfect time to accumulate.

However, this prediction seems more cautious. A 51% probability indicates that the market is not entirely certain. Looking at other data, 17% believe it will rise to $110,000, while 30% expect it to fall below $80,000. This divergence actually reflects the rationality of the market.

As someone who has experienced multiple cycles, I want to say: don’t be blinded by short-term predictions. The true value of Bitcoin is not how high it can go, but what it represents—a financial revolution. Regardless of rises or falls, staying calm and rational is the key to victory. History will eventually repeat itself, but often in different ways.