The technical chart for Bitcoin ETF has just flashed a rare "death cross" signal—the 50-day moving average has sharply crossed below the 200-day moving average. This is not a gentle technical indicator for holders.

The context of this first-ever trigger since launch is crucial. From a high of $70 to around $50 now, the one-month decline has reached 13%, with a six-month retracement of 16%. Even more extreme, the daily net outflow once hit a record of $332 million. Currently, the RSI is stuck around 40, and before entering oversold territory, the death cross has already been triggered. What does this indicate? Selling pressure has not been fully released.

Why is there so much concern? Because the flow of funds into this ETF almost directly reflects the Bitcoin market sentiment. When institutional funds start to outflow, BTC tends to drop accordingly—for example, from $100,000 directly down to $91,000, a decline of over 27%. Now that the death cross has appeared, Bitcoin will probably not be able to stand alone. The risk of forced liquidation for leveraged longs is rising, and volatility is likely to increase.

Both technical and capital indicators point in the same direction: institutions are voting with their feet. No matter how you interpret this as a lagging indicator, the next trading week’s market performance is likely to be a direct reflection of this signal. Preparing risk management in advance is often much wiser than regretting afterward.