The likelihood of a truly capable quantum computer (CRQC) that can break mainstream public key cryptography systems emerging within the next decade is extremely low. The more pressing risks currently stem from vulnerabilities themselves and implementation security issues. The article distinguishes between the quantum risks of encryption and digital signatures: data that requires long-term confidentiality should adopt post-quantum encryption as early as possible to prevent "collect first, decrypt later" attacks. However, digital signatures relied upon by blockchain do not face the same urgency; rushing to migrate may introduce greater risks due to performance issues, complexity, and implementation vulnerabilities. For blockchain, the focus should be on proactive planning and cautious advancement of post-quantum migration, especially for Bitcoin, which, due to slow governance and a large number of assets with "abandoned and exposed public keys," must develop solutions early. The overall principle is to take quantum threats seriously but avoid incurring excessive and premature migration costs due to misjudging the timeline. Read more:

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