Breaking News! The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference "Major Shift in Direction": End of the Fiscal Water Buffalo Era? Investment in 2026 Must Be Reconstructed!🔥

The quantitative high-frequency analysis of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has provided a clear signal: in 2026, do not expect another “flooding” approach; a structural fluctuation market will become the main theme.

This time, it’s not just a shift but a fundamental logical reversal. Let’s break down—why has the “fiscal water buffalo” become a thing of the past? Who will emerge victorious in the new cycle?

1. Real Estate: From “Stabilize the Housing Market” to “Bottom-line Thinking” 🏠🔍

The most important change: the phrase “stabilize the housing market and stock market” has been removed from the official communiqué.

This is not a word game but a change in attitude: policymakers’ tolerance for asset price fluctuations is increasing.

Risk statements have been “downgraded” + hidden debt faces the strictest constraints yet.

2025’s communiqué first states: “Urge local governments to actively resolve debts, and no illegal increase in hidden debt.”

This sends a signal to local finance:

The old logic of “get on first and worry later” is over.

2. Fiscal Policy: From Aggressive Offense → Precise Efficiency and Discipline 🧮⚔

This change is the core of the entire meeting.

The deficit logic shifts from “increase” to “maintain necessary levels.”

This means: future budget space will be limited, and there will be no second season of “flooding.”

From “more forceful” to “more scientific and serious.”

In the past, emphasis was on intensity; now, efficiency is prioritized. This also indicates: the era of rough and ready fund usage is over, and policy stimulus will weaken in explosive power.

The overall direction shifts to: eliminate ineffective subsidies, regulate tax incentives.

Problems like chaotic investment promotion and local competitive subsidies might become targets for cleanup.

Local finance enters the “lifting the lid” stage.

No longer will there be continued expansion of special bonds; instead, the focus is on confronting the fundamental issue: local governments don’t have money.

3. Monetary Policy: Straightforward Anti-Deflation, Precise Drip Irrigation 💧📉

2025’s new keywords: “Reasonable price rebound.”

This means:

Officially acknowledging the explicit existence of deflationary pressure, with price rebound as one of the policy goals.

At the same time emphasizing: “Smooth transmission mechanism”—money must flow into the real economy, not just stay in the banking system.

In other words: future easing won’t be absent, but more precise, with more effective transmission.

4. Macro Regulation: From “Emergency Relief” to “Long-term Planning” 📈👀

“Cross-cycle” has been officially included; this year is not just a one-year cycle but a three to five-year planning period.

This implies policies will: reduce short-term repeated stimulatory measures and focus more on sustainable growth paths.

5. New Logic of Domestic Demand: Recognize Problems, Return to “Source Income Growth” 💵🔥

Key points include:

• Domestic demand-led
• Investment stabilizing after decline
• Income increase plans for urban and rural residents

This indicates: stimulating consumption will not rely on subsidies but on increasing income and confidence.

It belongs to:

“Giving out consumption vouchers is useless; just pay wages.”

Investment Strategy for 2026: Say Goodbye to Universal Price Increases, Embrace a Structural New Cycle 📊🚀

Based on the above policy signals, the main theme for 2026 is already very clear:

1. Abandon the illusion of universal price hikes.

Fiscal discipline tightens, and stimulus will no longer be released in a “roaring” manner.

The market will lean more towards: high volatility + structural differentiation + phased themes.

2. Focus on the “Anti-Deflation Chain”

Including:

• Industries capable of raising prices
• Necessities
• Core technologies, self-controlled
• Industries benefiting from policy drip feeding (but valuations must be reasonable!)

3. Structural opportunities in debt resolution chains

If local fiscal solutions are implemented, related opportunities may include:

• Debt swaps
• Local financing platforms
• Infrastructure supporting projects

which could see phased market moves.

4. Profits depend on fundamentals, not how much water is poured in.

Policy clearly tells us:

In the future, growth, reform, and efficiency will be relied upon, not flooding.

Comment and Interaction Area 👇

What do you think will be the strongest main line in 2026?

A. Anti-Deflation Main Line

B. Technological Self-Sufficiency Main Line

C. Beneficiaries of Localized Debt

D. Overall Recovery of Risk Assets

E. None of the above, there should be another main player

Feel free to share your judgment, and let’s analyze future trends together.

#宏观分析 # Fiscal Policy #2025中央经济工作会议 # Real Estate #货币政策 # Fiscal Water Buffalo #投资策略 # A-shares #结构性行情 # Cross-Cycle Adjustment #ChinaEconomy