2025-12-11 17:21:15

Russian crude oil is experiencing a "price plunge."

According to the latest tracking data from Argus Media, the prices of Ural crude oil exported from the Black Sea and ESPO crude oil via the Pacific route have fallen to their lowest levels since February 2022. How severe is this decline? In the first week of December (1-7), Ural crude shipped from Baltic ports plummeted by $2.4 per barrel week-on-week, to $41.16/barrel; the same grade from Novorossiysk port fared even worse, dropping by $2.8 to $38.28/barrel.

Crude oil from ESPO destined for the Chinese market was not spared, with an average price of $52.36 per barrel, down $1.6 week-on-week. Indian buyers, however, scored a bargain—the Russian oil they received fell below the $58 mark, hitting a new low since March 2023.

Even more exaggerated are the discount margins. Currently, Ural crude is $25.8 cheaper than Brent benchmark oil, a spread that has doubled since U.S. sanctions on LukOil and a certain oil company. To put it in perspective, the epic discount of May 2022 was only a $34 spread; now, it’s approaching that record level.

While prices have collapsed, shipments are soaring. The daily average export volume hit 4.24 million barrels during the same period, a week-on-week increase of 290,000 barrels, directly setting a new export peak since the conflict began. Meanwhile, the "floating warehouses" on the sea are also expanding—about 180 million barrels of crude are piled on oil tankers with no buyers, nearly 30% more than at the end of August.

This combination of falling prices, increasing volume, and inventory buildup sends intriguing signals about the market.

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retroactive_airdrop

· 2025-12-14 16:59

Wait, price drops while volume increases? That logic is a bit weird, selling so much while prices fall? --- India really made a profit, who can refuse Russian oil below $58? --- 180 million barrels floating at sea with no buyers, I can't imagine this scene. --- Discount doubling approaching $34, is Putin trying to knock everyone out? --- Exports hitting high levels + inventory explosion, is this a bloodletting-style dump? --- The Brent vs. Urals price difference is so big, middlemen are laughing to death. --- Both bulls and bears can make money, anyway someone is taking the plunge.

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Gm_Gn_Merchant

· 2025-12-14 16:33

If you can't sell it, you will smash the price like crazy... Indians laughed to death, cheap oil for free

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PessimisticOracle

· 2025-12-14 15:36

Hmm... It's another old story of oversupply. Russian oil is offering crazy discounts but couldn't stimulate demand. Wait, 180 million barrels stacked at sea? That's outrageous. India is really the winner in grabbing cheap deals. We still need to see how the subsequent sanctions escalate. Prices are falling, yet they still have to push out shipments. How tough must that be... with such low oil prices, it will only get more bloody later. No, this logic is reversed — reaching a peak in exports actually indicates that the Russian border currency is depreciating while selling at a loss. Is this an act of desperate selling? 180 million barrels with no buyers... that's a bit green. Who dares to take this risk?

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BearMarketMonk

· 2025-12-13 23:12

Prices plunging and shipment volumes soaring, this logic is a bit strange... Dumping at low prices? --- 180 million barrels stacked on the ship? That's gotta be desperate... --- Discounts doubling and approaching an epic level, is Russia's oil clearing out inventory? --- While India is picking up bargains, we're just watching the show, pretty interesting. --- The combination of increased volume and falling prices... what does it indicate, rushing to sell? --- Floating storage expanding by 30%, have the buyers all left? --- Sanctions are at full effect, but Russian oil is determined to sell. --- Breaking below $58 to a new low, how many people got screwed?

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MerkleDreamer

· 2025-12-11 17:51

Still flooding the market even when you can't sell? That logic is a bit absurd. The oil tankers are full, yet they're still pouring out. Is Uncle Russia trying to crash the market?

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HodlAndChill

· 2025-12-11 17:51

Russian oil this wave of decline is ridiculous... India is疯狂抄底 --- Wait, exports are actually soaring? This logic is a bit strange --- 180 million barrels stranded at sea, how desperate is that --- Discount doubled... Brent is laughing --- Price collapse, volume increase, inventories piling up? This signal is quite sharp --- Indian buddies are catching the bargain, what about us in China --- Floating warehouses are expanding, what does that indicate? --- This rhythm... seems a bit like the market is showing weakness --- Money is so abundant there's nowhere to put it, so prices are being suppressed to sell --- Is the sanctions effect so direct, with a $25 discount

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TestnetScholar

· 2025-12-11 17:44

Hey wait, the price is plunging but the shipping volume is hitting new highs? Isn't something off with this logic? --- They only slash prices when they can't sell, right? Stacking 180 million barrels at sea—how anxious must they be? --- Chinese prices are already very attractive, but India’s are even better. No wonder everyone’s rushing to buy. --- Maximum sanctions effect, Russian oil is now dirt cheap. Who wouldn’t come and grab the deal? --- The 30% increase in floating storage... Are they creating financial products for oil tankers? --- Ural crude oil is at a record low price. Can it hold up next month? --- Export peak + inventory explosion = the market is shouting "buy the dip," but no one is really willing to take the risk. --- A discount difference of $25.8—these buyers are as happy as they can be.

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MoonWaterDroplets

· 2025-12-11 17:42

The seller is desperate, dumping their holdings to clear inventory. This tactic is familiar, reminiscent of a crypto market crash.

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SchroedingerMiner

· 2025-12-11 17:24

Indians are making a killing this time, and our Chinese buyers are just getting cut? --- Oil prices have bottomed out but still selling, this tactic is quite ruthless --- Floating warehouses piled up like this, I can feel the anxiety of unsellable inventory --- Discounts doubling nearing epic levels, is this really about lowering costs or just helplessness? --- Increasing volume, dropping prices, inventory bursting... What is Russia gambling on? --- $38 per barrel? Should have stockpiled oil last year, haha --- Something's not right with this pace, feels like there's more to the story

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