2025-12-11 05:20:32

This morning, I reviewed this year's rate cut cycle and found a pretty obvious pattern—each time it's "meeting rate cut, speech pours cold water."

The three rate cuts in the second half of the year occurred on September 18, October 29, and December 10. On the day of the first cut, the market dropped sharply by 2% after Powell's speech and closed lower, followed by a continuous plunge of 10,000 points (from $117,000 to $108,000).

The second cut was even more severe, with a 4.2% gap before and after the meeting, and then a daily chart collapse of 27%—straight from 110,000 to 80,000.

Before and after the third rate cut, it fell 5.03%, and now the price is hovering around 89,000. Based on this rhythm, a new round of decline might still be brewing.

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LiquidityWitch

· 2025-12-12 00:42

ngl the fed's playing this weird ritual dance... cut rates then gaslight the market into submission. powell's like a dark sorcerer casting conflicting spells lmao

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HodlVeteran

· 2025-12-11 10:05

Bro, I'm very familiar with this pattern. Rate cuts are positive news, and speeches are the real killer [dog head]. Powell's mouth is more accurate than any technical analysis... We're just here to be the suckers for his speeches. At the 89,000 level, I bet five bucks it will still test lower; the bear market slowdown band hasn't been crossed yet. Young people, remember, don't get overly excited before meetings. Holding cash honestly is the safest. I was tricked by this kind of "good news" back in the day. Now that I've seen through it, even doing the opposite works [微笑].

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FlashLoanPrince

· 2025-12-11 05:50

Powell is just like to play with smoke screens, cutting rates while scaring people. The market has really been messed up.

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UnluckyMiner

· 2025-12-11 05:48

Powell's mouth is really incredible; the positive effect of rate cuts is directly turned into a negative by his words. --- So, buying is not better than not buying. Instead of benefiting from a rate cut, the market drops. Who the hell can understand this logic? --- I didn't dodge that sharp drop, and I'm still in losses now. I'm really convinced. --- According to this pattern, next time before a rate cut, I'll just go all-in cash. Anyway, buying just gets you beaten. --- Brother, your pattern detection is spot on, but the problem is that knowing it is useless; you still get beaten.

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Layer2Arbitrageur

· 2025-12-11 05:46

actually ran the delta on those fed speak patterns... powell's literally printing arbitrage windows every conference lmao. the 4.2% swing on round two? that's just free money if you know how to structure the hedge correctly.

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OldLeekMaster

· 2025-12-11 05:43

As soon as Powell speaks, I know it's going to crash the market. This guy cuts interest rates as if he's setting a trap. The positive effect of rate cuts is completely killed by his speeches, it's incredible. That halving event really gave me a heart attack; I didn't dare to buy the dip when it was at 80,000. Now it's trading sideways at 89,000, and I feel like another storm is coming. It's always the same routine, unavoidable. It's really unfortunate to have Powell as such a speech killer. Seeing the rate cut in the meeting, I want to run away; this market logic is absurd.

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CryptoMotivator