2025-12-11 02:00:24

#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 December 11 Morning Crude Oil Trading Notes

These past couple of days, oil prices have been heavily pressured by several factors. Iraq's production recovery directly caused selling, pushing crude oil down to $58.50. Although geopolitical tensions are still a topic, their ability to support prices is limited. The Fed's rate cut expectations haven't provided much support for oil prices either. In simple terms, in the short term, supply shocks are the main driver, and the market is biased bearish.

API inventory data is a key indicator of recent fluctuations and needs close attention. The daily chart shows repeated tests of the $56 support level, with MACD still circling below the zero line. The bears don't have much strength, but the trend hasn't reversed. The 1-hour cycle is even more straightforward—moving averages are pressing down from above, and MACD is below the zero line, indicating bearish dominance. This morning's weak oscillation at low levels is a typical continuation of a downward trend.

Trading strategy: Short on rebounds at resistance levels, with a light position around the $58.8-$58.9 zone.

Stop loss set at $59.1
Targets at $58.3 and $58.1

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fren.eth

· 2025-12-14 01:46

The oil prices have indeed been hammered quite hard by Iraq this time. Repeatedly testing the support at around 58 is really a bit annoying, but the fact that 56 hasn't broken indicates that the bears aren't that fierce. In the short term, let's wait and see the API data. Currently, I don't hold any positions.

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StakeWhisperer

· 2025-12-13 22:37

Iraq got knocked out just by stirring the oil. This move is indeed difficult to execute, and it feels like we still need to continue testing the bottom.

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FOMOSapien

· 2025-12-13 22:00

This wave of oil prices has truly been crushed by supply. Iraq immediately ramped up production to the max, and geopolitics can't save it.

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 2025-12-11 02:29

Iraq's massive sell-off directly crushed oil prices, staying below $58 and leaving no chance for a rebound. The supply side is just too fierce.

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DeFiCaffeinator

· 2025-12-11 02:18

They're dumping again, Iraq's move is really ruthless. I'm worried it might drop from 58 to 56, so I need to watch the API data closely.

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BlockchainDecoder

· 2025-12-11 02:12

From a technical perspective, this analysis indeed captures the key point: supply-side shocks outweigh geopolitical premiums, and this logic is solid. It is worth noting that API inventory data must be monitored closely; historical data shows that such indicators tend to lead price movements by 2-3 trading days. I recommend referring to Kilian (2009) on the driving factors of oil prices. However, I have some reservations about shorting at the 58.8-58.9 level. The short-term rebound strength may be stronger than expected. To be cautious, should we move the entry point up to 59.2 before entering? In summary, closely following API data is the key to success.

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RugPullProphet

· 2025-12-11 02:06

Oil prices have indeed been hammered this time, with Iraq's immediate resumption of production directly crushing the market. API data must be closely monitored, with the 56 support repeatedly tested in this rhythm... The bears lack momentum but are still quite annoying. A small short position at 58.8-58.9 should suffice, with the target mainly looking at 58.1.

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