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According to the summary of the decision announced by the Fed on December 10, 2025, and the Economic Projections released, based on the (dot plot/noktasal grafik), one interest rate cut of (25 basis points) is forecasted for 2026.
Details are as follows:
• December 2025 Decision: The Fed lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points as expected, bringing it to the range of 3.50% - 3.75%.
• 2026 Outlook (Dot Plot): The median (central point) in the published dot plot indicates that the policy rate will fall to the range of 3.25% - 3.50% by the end of 2026.
• Implication: This suggests that most Fed members expect only one more rate cut of just 25 basis points throughout 2026, with rates stabilizing at this level.
While market expectations sometimes price in more aggressive cuts (2 or more), the Fed's official projection indicates a "slow and limited" easing path.