#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Sharing some practical insights from the FOMC meeting night

**Data release at 3 a.m.**

Honestly, the vast majority of people are most likely to lose money in the first 1-minute candle after the data is released. Why? Because all the bots in the market are racing to news, and ordinary traders simply can't compete.

Plus, the bid-ask spreads are particularly wide at this time, and order book liquidity is sparse. The market movements are entirely mechanical reactions triggered by algorithms based on keywords. These reactions will be gradually corrected as the market’s true interpretation develops, so there's no need to panic.

A smarter approach is to monitor the immediate reactions of three indicators: U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index, and Nasdaq futures. If their directions diverge noticeably—for example, if the bond market is signaling hawkishness while stocks are showing dovishness—that indicates the market hasn't fully sorted things out yet, so it's better to be cautious.

**The real show starts at the 3:30 press conference**

The press conference half an hour later often becomes a golden window for secondary pricing. There are three details particularly worth paying attention to:

1. How is the opening statement worded—still emphasizing data dependence, or directly revealing a dovish or hawkish stance?

2. The Q&A session. Are there subtle changes in language regarding neutral interest rates, financial stability, or the labor market? Small wording changes can alter the meaning.

3. Watch out for conditional statements. For example, phrases like "If inflation rises again, we do not rule out resuming rate hikes" are especially prone to market overreaction.

**Key points of this meeting**

Tonight’s meeting is not an ordinary FOMC meeting—it comes with economic forecasts and the dot plot. Honestly, these two elements are even more critical than the statement itself. The data are laid out there, leaving less room for interpretation.