📌 $BTC 90,000 sideways, the whole world is waiting for tonight's Federal Reserve decision.

The core questions are three: Will they cut or not? Will they raise or not? How will they move next year?
1️⃣ Will there be a rate cut? — Very likely YES, 25 basis points is almost certain.
All macro data, from non-farm payrolls and PCE to various indicators, are paving the way for a rate cut.
The consensus within the Federal Reserve is for a 25bp cut, and the next candidate, Haskett, also emphasizes 25bp.
This rate cut is basically a certainty.
2️⃣ Will there be a big rally after the cut? — Clearly: No.
Why? Because expectations have already been priced in.

Over the past two weeks, BTC has risen from 80,000 to 90,000, fueled by rate cut expectations.

This year, there have been two rate cuts, but neither caused a big rally:

9/17 Rate Cut → BTC down 8%

10/29 Rate Cut → BTC down 29%

So tonight, the real key is not “rate cut,” but Powell’s stance on the rate cut path for 2026.
3️⃣ What is the outlook for next year? The key depends on how long the rate cut cycle can continue.
There is now a high level of division within the Federal Reserve:

One camp: No more cuts, keep rates steady.

Another camp: Continue cutting 4–5 more times next year to 2.5%.

This disagreement = the biggest uncertainty in the market.
4️⃣ Three scenarios for tonight: directly determine how BTC will move next
① The conventional scenario (most likely)
✔ 25bp rate cut
✔ No additional info
→ Market volatility, US stocks move with it, crypto won’t have much fluctuation.
② The dovish scenario (most ideal)
✔ 25bp rate cut
✔ Hints at more than 2 cuts next year
→ Risk assets rebound across the board, BTC hitting 100,000 this week is not a dream.
③ The hawkish scenario (worst)
✔ 25bp rate cut
✔ Hints at limited room for cuts next year
→ Expectations cool down, returning to 85,000 is very normal.
⭐ Summary
Tonight’s most important aspect is not the “cut,” but how the Fed explains their stance for next year.
Rate cuts are just the prelude; the real story is the policy path for 2026.
The truth will be revealed in the early morning.