#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 the release of the Fed's decision at 3 a.m. is not so much suspense as it depends on how the Fed chairman tells the story. The 25 basis point rate cut has long been written on the face, and what really determines the follow-up market is the wording - behind every word there is room for market interpretation.

Looking back at the 25 basis point action in October, Powell warned that inflation could rebound, bluntly saying that the December decision was "not yet finalized." Inflation has not fallen below the Fed's 2% target line since March 2021. Recently weak labor market data and PCE are also showing signs of slowing inflation, all of which are reinforcing market expectations of interest rate cuts. However, last week's initial jobless claims hit a more than three-year low, which eased concerns about the rapid deterioration of the labor market, but in turn put the Fed's policy research and judgment in a dilemma because of data divergence.

External factors have pushed decision-making up several notches: fiscal doubts caused by the government's massive tax cuts and spending plan, uncertainty about tariff policy, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the 43-day government shutdown that directly stuck the release of key economic data, all of which have exacerbated the confusion of policy direction.

If Powell releases a more dovish signal this time, the US stock market and the currency circle may join forces to pull a wave, and this momentum may be maintained until mid-December. But don't forget that Japan may raise interest rates around that time, and the risk of black swan is not small.