The market has been a bit interesting lately, everyone is staring at the Fed's interest rate cut, but what you should really worry about may be the other side.

Let's talk about the timeline first. In the past month or two, the Bank of Japan is the highlight. The December 18-19 meeting is basically certain to raise interest rates. Don't underestimate this - the yen carry game for many years is coming to an end. The previous set of borrowing cheap yen to buy coins? It doesn't work right away.

Once Japan takes action, the chain reaction cannot be escaped: funds return to Japan, liquidity in the crypto market is drawn blood, and holders are forced to cut their flesh to repay loans. The drop from $92,000 to $86,000 in early December is a signal that the market is digesting expectations in advance. This sensitivity shows that everyone knows it in their hearts.

Extending to next year or even the year after, the situation is even more complicated. Although the Fed has resumed cutting interest rates, the pace is extremely slow - twice in 2025 and once a year thereafter. What is this called water release? At best, it is "drip irrigation", and you want to rely on this to push the super bull market? I think too much.

After the new Trump administration came to power, it was another layer of variables. Whether the policy direction is positive or bearish, no one can say now. In the short term, we look at Japan's tightening, in the medium term, the Fed's warmth, and in the long term, we look at the policy game.

So don't just stare at the excitement of interest rate cuts, the real risks and opportunities are often hidden in inconspicuous places. The movements on the Japanese side may be more noteworthy than Powell's speech.