Others don't panic - bad data is sometimes good news.

As soon as the ADP employment data came out recently, many people began to worry about the collapse of the economy. But to put it another way, this may be a good time to bet on rate cuts. The Fed's gang is under a lot of pressure now, and the employment data is pulling their crotches, so it's no wonder they don't do it.

At the interest rate meeting on December 9-10, it is almost certain that it will be cut by 25 basis points. The probability given by the market is 84%, and such high certainty is uncommon. But what is interesting is that if it falls, it will fall, and the attitude is estimated to have to be held - this is the so-called "hawkish interest rate cut".

What does it mean to pretend to be a tough guy while cutting interest rates? **

To put it bluntly: I will show you, but don't expect me to fall all the time. There is a lot of noise within the Fed right now, and it is expected that four people may vote against this meeting. However, this disagreement just shows that they are very entangled between inflation and economic growth.

The 25 basis point rate cut is basically not running, but the dot plot will most likely show that it will be cut up to two more times next year. This move not only stabilized market sentiment, but also left a way out for itself.

**The uglier the data, the more dramatic the interest rate cut? **

That's right. The Fed's job is to focus on two things: don't raise prices too sharply, and don't lose too many jobs. Now that the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.44%, the job market is obviously cool, and they can't sit idly by.

Powell himself said that the decision to cut interest rates in October was "thrilling" and said that he would be more cautious in the future. But this has to be understood the other way around - not to say that it will not be lowered, but to take it slow. If economic data continues to weaken, interest rate cut expectations will only be stronger.

Improved liquidity has always been a good thing for BTC and the crypto market as a whole. This wave of macro shifts may be more effective than any technical indicators.