Recently, I have been eyeing an indicator - the Short-Term Behavior-Weighted Trend Signal (BWTS). It is not simply to see who is losing money and selling coins, but specifically to track the actions of those chips that have been "held for a while" and forced to cut their positions. The surrender of this kind of old chip is often more telling than retail investors chasing the rise and fall.

Looking at historical data, you will find a pattern: every time the BWTS (red line) and the BTC price (black line) diverge, the panic is basically almost released, and there is a high probability that there will be a decent rebound or even a reversal.

But that time in May 2022 was different. The Luna crash came too suddenly, BWTS was smashed down as soon as it returned to the zero axis, and the original divergence pattern was directly invalidated - the rebound did not hold up, and the market fell directly into a deep bear. This did catch many people off guard at the time (see Figure 2).

Now let's look at the shape of BWTS (Figure 1), which is quite similar to the state before the previous successful rebound. According to this logic, as long as the divergence is not broken, this wave of rebound may not be over yet.

But who can guarantee that there will be no "Luna2.0" in December? Or which macro data suddenly exploded? To be honest, I don't know. The market is always a race between accidents and tomorrow, and uncertainty is the only certainty.

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Let's briefly talk about how this indicator is calculated, and those who don't want to see the technical details can directly cross it out.

BWTS mainly looks at two data:
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