The market is now almost sure of one thing: the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and the probability lies there - 87%. CME data shows that this interest rate cut is basically gone, and a leading investment bank even directly said that it is "a certainty".

Why are you so sure? Just look at the recent employment data. Only 39,000 new jobs were created in September, which is a frighteningly low figure. What's even more heartbreaking is that young people aged 20 to 24 who have just graduated have the unemployment rate soaring to 8.5%. Some analysts believe that AI technology may be encroaching on traditional jobs, and employment pressure will increase.

However, what really makes people entangled is not this interest rate cut, but how to go in 2026. The interest rate meeting on December 9-10 may reveal some signals, but the market is currently quite divided. An investment bank predicts that it will press the pause button in January next year, and then continue to fall in March and June, finally pushing interest rates to the range of 3%-3.25%. They are quite optimistic, believing that the U.S. economy can maintain a growth rate of 2%-2.5% next year, and inflation will continue to fall.

Of course, personnel changes and policy consensus issues within the Fed have added variables to the subsequent pace of interest rate cuts. For the crypto market, the improvement in liquidity expectations may be an opportunity.