The market is waiting for the rate cut “shoe to drop” at 3 a.m. on Thursday, but do you really think this is going to be a carnival party?

The bond market has already given its answer—the yield has soared straight to 4.13%. Does this look like a celebration? It’s more like a vote of no confidence in the Fed. A 25-basis-point cut is probably inevitable, but that’s not the key issue.

The real killers are three things:

**First Blow: Saying Rate Cuts, but Feeling Nervous Inside**
Powell is very likely to put on a front and emphasize “data dependency,” and the dot plot may suggest a pause in rate cuts next year. The market had been fantasizing about consecutive rate cuts, and when this expectation gap appears, short-term volatility is inevitable.

**Second Blow: Moves Hidden in the Dark**
Don’t just focus on rate cuts—balance sheet expansion is the real hidden move (note: not the usual QE). Interbank liquidity is tight, and the Fed might quietly restart bond purchases early next year, pumping several billion dollars into the market each month. Once the liquidity tap is turned on, the whole landscape changes.

**Third Blow: Two Ticking Time Bombs**
First, there are rumors about the Fed chair being replaced. If someone from Trump’s camp takes over, the market fears monetary policy could spiral out of control, which would explain the bond market’s reaction.
Second, Japan is watching closely. If the Fed’s rate cut isn’t aggressive enough, the Bank of Japan might hike rates in response. With the world’s two major central banks at odds, capital flows could turn into a chaotic mess.

**What does this mean for crypto?**
In the short term, don’t expect a rate cut to trigger a direct rally—choppy price action and shakeouts are more likely. But looking further ahead, liquidity release is the big trend. Combine that with Bitcoin’s halving next year and institutional funds still waiting on the sidelines... think about that combo.

Share your thoughts in the comments: Is this “all the good news priced in and a sell-off,” or “the last chance to board the bull market train”?