2025-12-09 23:42:00

This weekend, BTC has been consolidating around $90,000. Although the trading volume isn’t explosive, the market sentiment remains quite stable.

Right now, everyone is focused on just one thing—the Federal Reserve meeting on December 11. The probability of a rate cut has soared to 88.4%, leaving almost no suspense. The real variables are the dot plot and what comes out of Powell’s mouth; these two factors can directly determine the short-term market movement.

You probably still remember last year’s script, right? Right before Christmas, the market was on fire—expectations of a December rate cut combined with Trump’s election win. But then Powell threw cold water on the excitement, and the dot plot only predicted two rate cuts. Ironically, there ended up being four cuts this year.

So this time, the dot plot’s predictions for how many rate cuts will happen in 2026, plus how Powell communicates, will directly impact short-term trends.

Looking ahead, next year Trump will be fighting the midterm elections, making stable growth, jobs, and stock markets non-negotiable priorities. More importantly, in 2026 the Fed will get a new chair, and the new pick will most likely be compliant. My personal view is that even if the new chair isn’t aggressively dovish, the policy tone will align more closely with Trump, truly opening up room for rate cuts.

On the data front, BTC’s turnover rate is dropping, indicating most people are on the sidelines and selling pressure isn’t heavy. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor posted another Bitcoin tracker update, clearly still accumulating. At this level...

BTC-0,04%

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ForkThisDAO

· 2025-12-12 23:22

Powell's words really have more influence on the market than a candlestick chart; I haven't forgotten the lessons from last year.

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GasWaster

· 2025-12-10 00:14

Powell really needs to think things through. Wasn't last year's criticism harsh enough? The dot plot sets the tone even more than his words.

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nft_widow

· 2025-12-10 00:13

Powell's words are really crucial. I still remember that bucket of cold water last year. Now we have to bet on what he'll say this time...

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SilentObserver

· 2025-12-10 00:10

Powell’s words have more influence on the market than the dot plot. Last year, this was already thoroughly proven.

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YieldHunter

· 2025-12-10 00:08

honestly the whole "88.4% rate cut priced in" thing is just noise if you look at the actual data... powell's gonna talk them down anyway lol

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SchrodingerWallet

· 2025-12-10 00:07

Powell's mouth is the real variable here, he's already mastered the dot plot. --- Let's wait until the meeting on the 12th is over before saying anything, right now it's all just speculation. --- Saylor is still buying like crazy, this guy really believes. --- An 88.4% chance of a rate cut, doesn't sound like there's much suspense. --- This sideways market is really testing everyone's mentality, I'm already numb. --- I really can't forget last year's Christmas scenario, can't afford to get dumped again this time. --- The decline in turnover rate shows that we're all betting Powell won't dump on us again. --- Next year Trump will need to stabilize employment and the stock market, will BTC benefit from that? --- The new chairman is most likely going to be obedient, that's when the real rate cut room opens up. --- Feels like everyone is watching the 90,000 level, but no one wants to make the first move.

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SolidityStruggler