2025-12-09 23:29:38

The recent macro signals have become very clear—CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has reached 87.3%. This number basically tells the market that at the Fed meeting early Thursday morning, a rate cut is almost a certainty.

What does a rate cut mean for the crypto market? Simply put, liquidity is coming back. Every time the Fed injects liquidity, crypto assets are among the fastest and most responsive. This isn’t just talk—just look at previous rate-cutting cycles.

That being said, expectations are one thing, and the actual market trend is another. Right now, everyone is talking about rate cuts, but until the trend is confirmed, these are just expectations. The people who actually make money aren’t betting on the news, but rather enter the market when the direction is clear.

My own strategy is as follows:

First, don’t go all-in. The rate cut hasn’t officially happened yet, so keep half your ammo in reserve for any surprises. Once the real trend starts, riding the entire move is much safer than gambling on a single news event.

Second, take a longer-term view. Don’t panic over a single candlestick or short-term volatility. The value of blue-chip coins isn’t determined by a few hours of price action. If you get carried away by emotions, you’ll often end up being exit liquidity for the whales.

Most importantly—the rate cut itself isn’t the main focus, it’s what Powell says afterward that matters. A single hawkish comment can cool down the market instantly, while a dovish statement can ignite risk assets directly. So the real highlight is what he says after the meeting—that’s the key variable determining the market’s next move.

Rate cuts are indeed a big positive for the crypto market, but whether you can seize the opportunity doesn’t depend on luck, but on execution, patience, and discipline. There are plenty of people waiting for news, but those who truly profit are the ones who go with the trend and stay calm.

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ApeDegen

· 2025-12-12 15:43

87.3%? This number sounds like the market has already priced it in, but I’ll wait until Powell speaks before making any judgments—one word can change the whole game. Expectations and reality are way off. Those hardcore traders betting on rate cuts might get caught off guard on Thursday. Instead of going all-in, it’s better to save some bullets. The real market trend depends on following the trend, not betting on news. I’ve learned this firsthand. Crypto indeed reacts fastest to liquidity packages, but only if you survive until that moment. Don’t get burned by emotional fire. Powell’s words are more valuable than rate cuts themselves. A single hawkish statement can break defenses—this is the real ambush point. Calm and steady people make money; those panicking end up stepping on the big players’ toes. This game is brutally ruthless.

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 2025-12-11 04:49

87.3% is right, that number sounds quite intimidating, but the ones who really get to benefit are those old hands who don't chase the high. Powell's words are the key; listening to how he says it is much more reliable than just looking at the probabilities. --- Expectations of rate cuts are exploding but may not necessarily lead to a surge. I’m actually waiting for the market reaction after Powell’s speech— that’s the real watershed. --- Still the same point: there are plenty of people watching the news, but only a few remain calm enough to profit. I plan to stay on the sidelines for now and wait and see. --- 87.3% is indeed high, but I care more about how he will phrase it after his speech. One sentence can change the entire situation, and that’s what makes it exciting. --- Those who chase news frequently are dead meat; only those who go with the trend are thriving. Right now, everyone is talking about rate cuts, but the more it’s discussed, the more cautious we should be. --- Those who are all-in should reflect on themselves. Saving some bullets and waiting for the real direction to emerge is the way to go. --- Honestly, instead of betting on the inevitability of rate cuts, it’s better to wait for Powell’s speech before making decisions— that’s the real catalyst.

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SolidityStruggler

· 2025-12-10 18:31

Powell's words are worth more than the rate cut itself, quite simply. Wait for the wind to come out before acting, don't be driven by public opinion. 87% probability? Uh, half of the expectation has already been speculated on; the real market reaction depends on how it responds after implementation. All-in players are just tools for big players, no problem. The real weapon is speech; one word can turn a bull market into a bear market. Listening carefully to Powell's words is the key.

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TokenomicsShaman

· 2025-12-10 00:00

87.3% probability seems a bit shaky—when Powell speaks, it could all change. You're right, not going all-in is definitely the truth. Last time I got swept up by bullish news. The key is still the post-meeting speech—that's what really determines the market. I'm also waiting for confirmation of the direction before making a move; betting on news isn't as good as riding the trend. Even if rate cuts come, it doesn't necessarily mean a big rally. Anyway, I'll reduce my position first and see. Wait, I've heard this theory before? Feels like crypto trading just recycles the same few sayings. There are a lot of people discussing rate cuts now, but very few who actually take action. Keeping half your ammo is still reliable—risk management comes first. Don't get fooled by short-term candlesticks, that's the biggest trap for newbies. Powell's words alone can reverse the whole market—that's the real gamble. Even if rate cuts really happen, liquidity won't necessarily all flow into crypto—it's not absolute. Going with the trend beats everything, but the problem is most people can't tell what the trend is. That thing about bagholding is so true—most retail investors are doing exactly that. Only by staying calm and steady can you make money, but very few people can actually do that.

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CommunityLurker

· 2025-12-10 00:00

Powell’s words are the real trump card—the rate cut itself isn’t even valuable. I think that 87.3% probability is a bit shaky; the market has already priced it in. The real show on Thursday is what he says afterward. Anyone who went all-in is probably praying now, haha. “Stay calm and unhurried”—that’s easy to say, but how many can actually do it? Judging the value of major coins from a long-term perspective is correct, but it’s extremely hard to execute. A single sentence can instantly cool things down or ignite them? We’ve all been burned by that before.

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PriceOracleFairy

· 2025-12-09 23:47

ngl the powell presser is literally the oracle that matters here... 87.3% is just noise until we see which way he leans

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SmartContractPhobia

· 2025-12-09 23:40

Powell can turn things around with just one sentence, that's the real variable here. --- Even if the probability is as high as 87.3%, it's still just expectations—I just want to see how he speaks on Thursday. --- I'm holding half my position and waiting for the market, not betting on headlines. It's easy to say, but really hard to do. --- The rate cut expectations have already been fully priced in. Isn't it a bit late to enter now? --- The key is still the hawkish vs. dovish stance—one sentence can make the market move in the opposite direction. --- Don't go all-in, that's a painful lesson—someone always regrets it after betting everything. --- Liquidity returning is a good thing, but too many people are buying now. What about the risk? --- I agree with watching Powell's speech—that's the real deciding factor for what comes next. --- The expectations have already been over-hyped; the real market move will come after the actual decision. --- The suggestion about position management is good—it's definitely safer to keep some bullets in reserve.

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