Recently, the USDT price has gotten interesting, with a noticeable price difference between RMB and HKD channels. I got curious and did some math—

Suppose you invest 10,000 RMB. Currently, the mainland USDT price is about 6.95, so you can get 1,438.85 USDT. If you cash out through a Hong Kong card, the HKD to USDT price is now 7.83, so this batch of USDT can be exchanged for 11,266.19 HKD, which converts back to about 10,232 RMB.

That's a paper profit of 232 RMB, a single-round yield of 2.32%.

Doesn't seem high? But what if you repeat the operation? If you do it 10 times, compounding: (1+0.0232)^10×10000≈12,578 RMB. If you could actually run 100 cycles, the theoretical profit would be 100,000—your principal increases tenfold.

Of course, that's just the ideal scenario. In reality, you have to consider another number: risk.

Suppose the probability of something going wrong per operation is 0.5% (a conservative estimate), then:
- Probability of safely completing 10 cycles: 95.11%
- Making it through 100 cycles unscathed: 60.57%, basically a coin toss
- If you’re greedy and go for 1,000 cycles? Survival rate drops to just 0.665%...

So the math here is simple: in the 100–1,000 cycle range, the profits are indeed tempting. But whether you can actually pocket them depends on whether your luck holds out.

Do you think a 2.32% price difference is worth the risk? Or is this kind of game just a false proposition to begin with?