Is a 25BP rate cut a case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news,' or the start of a new rally? Watch for these two key signals!

The rate cut expectation has already been “chewed over” by the market for a month; now all that’s left is for the Fed to make it official early Thursday morning. If there really is a 25BP rate cut, I believe the market will indeed react in the short term, but the duration of the rebound depends on these two key signals:
Signal ①: Dot Plot Revision
If the dot plot suggests further cuts in 2025, the market will treat this rate cut as confirmation of a “dovish cycle,” and risk assets will all benefit.
Signal ②: Powell’s Tone
Will he be a “gentle, smiling Santa Claus,” or a “stern-faced manager of the money tap”? As soon as he speaks, assets worldwide will react accordingly.

Trading strategy:
1. Short-term strategy:
* Maintain light positions or avoid heavy predictive positions before the decision.
* At the moment of the announcement, watch BTC’s immediate reaction. If it quickly breaks through key resistance (such as previous highs), consider following with long positions.
2. Swing strategy:
* If the dot plot is dovish and the Fed signals future easing, consider swing long positions on major coins for a three- to six-week cycle.
* Wait for confirmation from major coins before entering altcoins, otherwise you risk getting caught out.

In short:
It’s not the rate cut itself that drives prices up, but the “future expectations” behind the rate cut. #美联储降息预测