A certain major Wall Street institution is hyping things up again, claiming that BTC could reach $170,000 in the next six months to a year. Honestly, their playbook is all too familiar—telling you to cash out at the bull market peak, urging you to buy the dip in a bear market, never apologizing when their predictions fall flat, and repeatedly bragging if they get it right. Essentially, it's all about exploiting timing and selective memory.

That said, their reasoning framework this time isn’t complete nonsense.

First, let’s look at the “digital gold” narrative. If BTC can truly solidify its status as a safe-haven asset in global portfolios, then a market cap revaluation isn’t just talk, and there’s logical support for the price moving toward $170,000. The key is whether the market genuinely embraces this narrative.

Next, let’s talk about selling pressure. MicroStrategy just completed a $1.4 billion financing round, giving them enough cash flow to operate for two years, so there won’t be any large-scale sell-offs in the short term. The market’s previous concerns about a potential dump are temporarily relieved, which does support the price.

The most crucial variable will come in January next year. The MSCI index will decide whether to remove MicroStrategy from its components. If it gets removed, the company’s market value could instantly evaporate by around $28 billion, and since BTC is its core asset, it would inevitably suffer collateral damage. Conversely, if it stays in the index, both the stock price and BTC price will have room to rebound. The outcome of this game will directly impact the subsequent trend.

Bottom line, this prediction has its reasoning, but it’s more about managing expectations. Whether it will actually come true depends on how things develop. Don’t be fooled by the numbers—focusing on the logic and key time points is what really matters.