2025-12-09 18:04:37

The interest rate decision in the early hours of this Thursday could be the last truly pivotal moment affecting the market in 2024. Rate cuts? Basically, there’s no suspense. But what the market is really betting on is whether the Fed will also launch bond purchases at the same time—that’s the real key to whether liquidity can truly return.

**Rate Cut Lands, Sentiment Moves First**

Since November, signals from multiple Fed officials have been clear enough. Once a rate cut is confirmed, risk assets usually react first, and ETH has always been more resilient than the broader market. Historical data shows that every time easing expectations heat up, Ethereum is at the forefront.

**If the Dot Plot Turns More Dovish, Valuation Logic Will Be Rewritten**

If the projected number of rate cuts for 2026 is raised, the market will immediately adjust its pricing framework for tech assets. ETH actually has quite a few cards in its hand: the supply-deflation mechanism is running, the L2 ecosystem is expanding, the Fusaka upgrade is cutting costs, and staking yields are still there—the lower the interest rates, the more valuable these advantages become.

**But the Most Critical Thing is Still Bond Purchases**

Reserves are tight right now, and short-term rates spike from time to time. If this meeting directly announces the purchase of short-term Treasuries or ramps up repo operations, liquidity will improve very quickly. ETH’s sensitivity to this kind of change is among the highest in the entire crypto market.

**Powell Might Still Play It Cool, But Even a Slight Turn of the Liquidity Faucet and the Market Will Charge Ahead**

Inflation pressures still exist, but it’s not as tense as at the start of the year. The market is now focused on one thing: will liquidity come back or not? Even if Powell’s wording is hawkish, as long as substantive liquidity tools are launched, expectations for the funding environment will immediately shift.

**The Conclusion is Simple: ETH and Meme Coins on Ethereum Will Dance to the Tune of Liquidity**

- No bond purchases? The market keeps churning sideways
- Bond purchases announced? ETH and Ethereum-related assets will be the first to become active

Once liquidity reverses, Ethereum is very likely to be among the first assets to take off.

ETH-0,63%

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CrossChainBreather

· 2025-12-10 10:18

Buying bonds is the real key to fate; lowering interest rates is just the appetizer, enough already. --- It's another old trick of "guessing liquidity by watching Powell's expression." You really just have to bet on the mindset. --- If ETH can follow the liquidity reversal this time... I need to take a good look at the chart. --- Basically, there are only two endings: either continue to grind or suddenly surge. There's no third way in between. --- If liquidity doesn't come back, talking about valuation logic is pointless. Conversely, once bond purchases start, the entire market will need to be rewritten. --- Ethereum Meme coins are indeed aggressive in riding the trend, but the premise is that the faucet is truly open. --- Always betting on liquidity like this; if you bet right, you take off; if you bet wrong, you keep lying flat.

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SmartContractWorker

· 2025-12-10 07:39

Bond purchases are the real gambling points, and interest rate cuts are smoke bombs. --- If Powell doesn't release water, he will stay up late this Thursday, and ETH will continue to trade. --- Whether liquidity can come back depends on the Fed's reluctance to release water, otherwise any easing signal will be in vain. --- Every time this kind of key meeting says that ETH is the vanguard, the result is not pressed to the ground and rubbed... Why is it different this time? --- Instead of waiting for the dot plot, it is better to look directly at the bond purchase action, which is what really determines the capital side. --- To be honest, the reserves are so tight, without some real money liquidity injection, what is the use of just cutting interest rates by 25bp. --- Whether the faucet can be turned on determines whether to rebound or continue to be beaten on Thursday, don't be fooled by the guise of interest rate cuts.

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Deconstructionist

· 2025-12-10 06:21

Bond purchases are the real life, and interest rate cuts are smoke bombs --- To put it bluntly, whether Powell will really let go of liquidity this time will determine how to play later --- They are gambling on bond purchases again, and when the time comes, "we will wait and see", and the market will be very disappointed --- If this wave of ETH really starts buying bonds, it is called value discovery, otherwise it will continue to be trapped --- Reserve tightness... When the short-end interest rate should be rushed, it is rushed, and whether the faucet can be turned on is the key --- The Ethereum chain Meme stuff, liquidity dances with the trend, to put it bluntly, it is a capital game --- I want to see if Powell dares to really announce the bond purchase, no matter how hawkish the wording is, it is useless --- Historical data? Last time, I also said that the data was there, but as a result, it continued to fluctuate for two months --- The dot plot adjustment ≠ really cheap, and no matter how high the staking income is, the interest rate must be lowered

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StakeOrRegret

· 2025-12-09 18:34

Bond buying is the real key. The rate cut was already expected; it all depends on whether Powell is willing to turn on the liquidity tap.

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PonziDetector

· 2025-12-09 18:27

Bond purchases are the real key; rate cuts are just the appetizer.

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LiquidatedThrice

· 2025-12-09 18:24

Buying bonds is the real game, rate cuts have long been decided. Waiting for Powell to inject liquidity again, feels like it's always the same. ETH's volatility is indeed wild, but it really depends on whether liquidity cooperates.

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PoolJumper

· 2025-12-09 18:11

Bond purchases are the real game-changer; rate cuts are just appetizers. Just go all in and wait for the bond purchase signal. Once liquidity comes in, ETH will be the first to benefit. Powell is really tricky; it all depends on what he actually does. Another round of “holding back.” I bet he’ll release some liquidity. Sounds reasonable, but when it comes down to the crucial moment, we still need to watch market reactions. With tight reserves, the probability of bond purchases isn’t low. If there’s no liquidity boost for ETH this round, it’ll probably keep grinding sideways.

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