2025-12-09 17:21:27

Tomorrow's looking pretty predictable if you trust the odds. Polymarket's showing a massive 95% probability that the Fed drops rates by 25 basis points. That's about as close to a sure thing as you get in this game.

The consensus is basically locked in at this point. Quarter-point cut incoming. Markets have already priced this in, but the real action might be in Powell's press conference afterward - that's where the surprises usually hide.

Anyone positioning ahead of the announcement? Rate cuts typically juice risk assets, but with expectations this high, we might see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario play out.

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GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-12 16:41

What does a 95% probability mean? It’s like betting that Powell won’t cause trouble, but he just loves to stir things up.

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MemecoinTrader

· 2025-12-12 14:20

yo 95% on polymarket is literally priced in already, powell presser bout to be the real psyops moment tho

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TommyTeacher1

· 2025-12-11 04:10

What does a 95% odds imply? The market has already priced it in; the real surprise might be coming from Powell's words.

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SquidTeacher

· 2025-12-09 17:51

A 95% probability sounds reassuring, but I think this is actually the most dangerous time.

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FlashLoanPrince

· 2025-12-09 17:51

There’s a 95% chance it sounds reassuring, but if something unexpected really happens, it’s all for nothing. A single sentence from Powell can overturn all predictions.

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 2025-12-09 17:51

95% probability it's already set, but I'm betting Powell will pull something unexpected.

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ChainChef

· 2025-12-09 17:43

nah 95% odds is just asking for the rug pull moment, powell's presser is where the real seasoning happens tbh

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OffchainWinner

· 2025-12-09 17:42

What does a 95% probability even mean? It still depends on what Powell says. In past years, they’ve always preferred to do the opposite at times like this.

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