#美联储FOMC会议 From Basement K-lines to Lujiazui: Eight Years of Survival in the Crypto World

In the winter of 2017, I was working odd jobs in a basement without heating, glued to the charts. Eight years later, the numbers in my account mean I no longer have to rely on anyone else. This journey has taught me four lessons, each paid for with real money.

**A Sudden Surge Is Always Followed by a Sudden Drop**

During the bull run in 2017, I saw a coin shoot up 320% in ten days. I didn’t think much, went all in with 80,000. On the third day, it slapped me with an 18% drop, and within a week, I lost 60,000. Later, I realized this logic: when the price surges over 30%, then goes sideways for three to five days, and suddenly drops around 15% with big volume—that’s a clear sign the big players are running. I’ve seen this K-line pattern countless times, and it never misses.

**Sideways at Highs Isn’t Waiting for You to Buy**

I made this mistake in 2019. I held on to several major coins that moved sideways for two months, thinking it was just a correction, so I added leverage and doubled down. Ended up getting my position cut in half. Now I’ve summed it up: if it moves sideways for over 20 days, turnover rate is below 2%, and the price is more than 20% away from the 20-day moving average, it’s not consolidation, it’s distribution. Now, whenever my system detects this pattern, I instantly reduce my position—never gambling again.

**Real Bottoms Are in the Volume**

During the big crash on March 12, 2020, I rushed in to bottom fish $LINK and got deeply trapped. The lesson: don’t just look at how much the price has fallen, watch the volume. What does a true bottom look like? Tight consolidation on low volume, followed by three or four days of modest volume increases and small green candles. Last year, $BTC showed this pattern around 25,000. I went all in, exited completely at 42,000, and made 5.8 million on that trade. This time, I made money using the right approach—my mindset was completely different.

**Survival Is Winning**

After so many years in crypto, the biggest truth I’ve learned is simple: being the smartest means nothing; it’s about who survives the longest. Now I only use half my capital, never use leverage. Last year, I got into $PEPE only after it had seen a 5x surge in volume, and took profit instantly as soon as the trend broke. Ended up making 12x and avoided the big crash that followed.

The market is always changing, but human nature never does. Stick to your principles, and you’ll last longer.