12.10 BTC Early Morning Market Express

Final Volatility Before the Decision! If 94,000 breaks, a surge to 96,000; if 92,500 breaks, a direct test of 91,000

I. Logic Support: Triple Game Determines Short-Term Direction

1. Macro Core: Countdown to the Fed decision (to be announced at 3 a.m. tomorrow), market has priced in an 89.4% probability of a 25bps rate cut, the focus shifts to "dovish cut" or "hawkish guidance," funds are positioned delta neutral, waiting for liquidity signals to be confirmed;
2. Capital Flow: Consecutive days of net ETF inflows provide bottom support, but there is dense sell pressure in the 93,000-94,000 range, leverage funds are cautious, over $280 million liquidated in 24 hours, warning of volatility risks;
3. Technicals: Daily Bollinger Bands narrowing (89,300-94,050), multi-period moving averages intertwined, indicating "accumulation and consolidation before directional move," breaking key levels will trigger a trending move.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis: High-Level Volatility and Accumulation, Key Level Offensives Will Decide Direction

Currently, BTC is in a narrow-range consolidation phase ahead of the Fed decision, with no clear unilateral trend before breaking the strong resistance at 94,000. Bulls and bears are battling in the 92,500–94,000 range, which is a "position exchange period before a news-driven move"—supported by easing expectations but suppressed by previous trapped positions. Short-term movement highly depends on the effectiveness of key level breakouts.

III. Practical Targets: Precise Levels + Dual-Path Execution Plan

1. Core Bull-Bear Demarcation

- Bullish Activation Line: 94,000 (Daily EMA30 + previous resistance); a firm break confirms short-term rebound continuation;
- Bearish Trigger Line: 92,500 (intraday starting point + 4-hour support); a break opens the door for a pullback test;
- Extreme Boundaries: Strong support at 91,400 (EMA120), strong resistance at 94,800 (previous downtrend starting point).
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